Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T19:32:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
8D 0x8d79…3c9f other 29 markets active 0h ago coverage 235d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$146 (-5%) realized −$95 · open −$51
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate60%15W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$109per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$140now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$318
7 days+$318
14 days+$318
30 days+$318
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 42% +$81
other 32% −$272
world 8% +$61
culture 7% +$37
sports 7% +$53
economics 3% −$8
politics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-7.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +37.6% +24.5% 100% 100% +24.5%
≤30d 1 +37.6% +24.5% 100% 100% +24.5%
≤90d 5 -20.8% -28.4% 40% 40% +10.0%
all 25 +2.7% -7.1% 60% 44% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.1% 44% -9.4%
10% -16.0% 24% -18.1%
15% -24.1% 24% -26.0%
20% -31.5% 12% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +22% too few recent
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$44 vs −$65 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

235d coverage
Net worth$140
Realized−$95
Unrealized−$51
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses15 / 10
Open positions4
Markets (closed)25 / 29
History coverage235d
Avg bet$109
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Tunisia win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 97¢ 99¢ $109 $112 +$3 (+3%)
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Yes 16¢ $41 $19 −$22 (-53%)
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? Yes $10 $6 −$4 (-39%)
Will Michael Jackson be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? Yes $31 $3 −$28 (-91%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $845 +$318 +38%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 13 $62 −$60 -97%
Will FK Shakhtar Donetsk win on 2026-04-16? Apr 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Will AZ win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $50 +$79 +158%
Will the next Dutch government be GL/PvdA + VVD + D66? Mar 24 $88 −$88 -100%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026? Mar 17 $23 $0 +2%
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Mar 17 $97 +$4 +4%
Will One Battle After Another win Best Adapted Screenplay at the 98th Mar 17 $100 +$13 +13%
Will Sinners win Best Original Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 17 $100 +$18 +18%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31? Mar 16 $40 +$8 +21%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Mar 11 $100 +$18 +18%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 11 $67 +$27 +40%
Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 11 $15 +$6 +42%
Prince Andrew sentenced to prison? Mar 01 $49 −$9 -18%
Will Canada win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Oly Mar 01 $116 −$116 -100%
Will Jutta Leerdam (NED) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Mar 01 $40 −$40 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Feb 28 $30 +$80 +266%
Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? Feb 14 $100 +$56 +56%
US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026? Feb 14 $100 +$8 +8%
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? Feb 11 $100 +$2 +2%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Feb 11 $86 −$5 -6%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Feb 11 $100 −$8 -8%
Will the next Dutch government be another combination? Oct 30 $139 −$52 -37%
Will Democrats 66 win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamen Oct 30 $112 +$19 +17%
Will the Party for Freedom win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands Oct 30 $377 −$257 -68%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 85¢ $587 20m
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 85¢ $169 21m
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 73¢ $407 1h
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 56¢ $298 20d
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 45¢ $62 38d
Will AZ win on 2026-04-19? BUY Yes 38¢ $50 62d
Will FK Shakhtar Donetsk win on 2026-04-16? BUY Yes 27¢ $20 66d
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 56¢ $148 78d
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 59¢ $51 87d
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 61¢ $156 94d
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $23 94d
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 69¢ $101 94d
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 61¢ $65 96d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31? SELL No 87¢ $48 96d
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 61¢ $26 96d
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 58¢ $50 99d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31? BUY No 72¢ $40 101d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL Yes 80¢ $118 101d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 28¢ $94 101d
Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? SELL Yes 21¢ $21 101d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 16¢ $41 111d
Prince Andrew sentenced to prison? SELL Yes 11¢ $40 111d
Will Tunisia win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $109 112d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? SELL Yes 29¢ $110 112d
Prince Andrew sentenced to prison? BUY Yes 13¢ $49 120d
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 61¢ $14 122d
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 59¢ $37 122d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY Yes 68¢ $100 123d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 20¢ $67 123d
Will Michael Jackson be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? BUY Yes $13 123d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $139.96 · official $139.96 (match) · 71 history records