Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:39:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

8D
0x8d7a…dc32
crypto · 34 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$22 -53%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$22 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$3
Realized−$22
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses11 / 20
Open positions3
Markets (closed)31 / 34
History coverage637d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 3 History 31 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$20
7 days−$20
14 days−$20
30 days−$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 8-14? No 94¢ 94¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14? No 87¢ 85¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 12? Down 13¢ 2¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-81%)
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? No 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Down 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Down 55¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Down 48¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Down 61¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
TikTok sale announced before May? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Microsoft buy TikTok? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Meta buy TikTok? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Will North Korea invade South Korea in 2025? Jun 12 $1 $0 +6%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2025? Jun 12 $1 $0 +21%
Will Trump remove tariff on China before May? Jun 12 $1 $0 +24%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Jun 12 $1 $0 +33%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2025? Jun 12 $1 $0 +35%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Feb 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump launch a coin before the election? Nov 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump go on Joe Rogan before election? Nov 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Belarus x Ukraine military clash by Sep 30? Nov 03 $1 $0 +8%
Will $BTC reach 70k before October? Nov 03 $1 $0 +9%
O’Malley vs. Dvalishvili Sep 16 $1 +$1 +117%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 71% −$17
politics 12% −$4
tech 7% −$3
world 7% $0
sports 2% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $2 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $2 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $2 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 12? BUY Down 13¢ $1 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 8-14? BUY No 94¢ $2 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14? BUY No 87¢ $1 1h
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? BUY No 1¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY Yes 83¢ $1 488d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 74¢ $1 488d
Will Meta buy TikTok? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 488d
Will Microsoft buy TikTok? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 488d
TikTok sale announced before May? BUY Yes 32¢ $1 488d
Will North Korea invade South Korea in 2025? BUY No 94¢ $1 488d
Will Trump remove tariff on China before May? BUY No 81¢ $1 488d
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? BUY No 75¢ $1 488d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 50¢ $1 636d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-56.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -57.3% -61.4% 32% 28% -68.2%
≤30d 25 -57.3% -61.4% 32% 28% -68.2%
≤90d 25 -57.3% -61.4% 32% 28% -68.2%
all 31 -51.6% -56.2% 35% 26% -62.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -56.2% 26% -62.7%
10% -60.4% 19% -66.3%
15% -64.2% 6% -69.5%
20% -67.7% 6% -72.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.19 · official $3.42 (match) · 61 history records