Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T15:46:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8D 0x8d7e…fe52 other 76 markets active 2h ago coverage 375d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$9 (-0%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate13%10W / 65L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$82per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$74now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$4
politics 32% −$3
sports 13% −$1
culture 7% −$1
world 2% $0
finance 1% $0
economics 1% +$1
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 2 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 2 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
all 75 -4.3% -13.4% 13% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.4% 0% -9.6%
10% -21.7% 0% -18.3%
15% -29.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -36.2% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 68% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.19 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

375d coverage
Net worth$74
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses10 / 65
Open positions1
Markets (closed)75 / 76
History coverage375d
Avg bet$82
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 75 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $74 $74 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 18 $72 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $75 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 10 $75 $0 +0%
Will Leeds win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Mar 02 $74 $0 +0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 15 $73 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 31 $73 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 28 $151 −$1 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 27 $2 $0 -13%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 27 $76 $0 -0%
Will Netflix say "Warner Bros" during earnings call? Jan 25 $76 $0 +0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 20 $152 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 17 $74 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 14 $77 $0 -1%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 11 $75 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 09 $76 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 05 $76 $0 +0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 03 $74 $0 -0%
Will Club Brugge win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 30 $75 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 27 $75 $0 +0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 19 $76 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 18 $77 $0 -0%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 14 $77 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 202 Dec 12 $75 $0 +0%
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 10 $74 $0 -0%
Will Monaco win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 08 $75 $0 -0%
Will Nottm Forest win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 04 $75 $0 -0%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 04 $1 $0 -50%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 202 Dec 03 $76 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on December 2? Dec 02 $0 $0 -100%
Will Jurassic World: Rebirth be the top grossing movie of 2025? Dec 01 $1 −$1 -58%
Will the Tennessee Titans win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 30 $76 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2026 NBA Finals? Nov 26 $75 $0 -0%
Will Captain America: Brave New World be the top grossing movie of 202 Nov 24 $157 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 20 Nov 21 $77 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Browns win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 14 $79 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 12 $75 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 10 $78 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 07 $151 $0 -0%
Will the New Orleans Saints win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 06 $1 $0 -40%
Will the Atlanta Falcons win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 01 $76 $0 -0%
No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting? Oct 30 $75 +$1 +1%
Will How to Train Your Dragon be the top grossing movie of 2025? Oct 24 $232 $0 -0%
Will Superman be the top grossing movie of 2025? Oct 23 $78 $0 -0%
Will Fulham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Oct 18 $75 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 15 $77 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 13 $75 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 10 $77 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Oct 08 $159 $0 -0%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 06 $78 $0 -0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 3? Oct 04 $76 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $74 1h
Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $72 2d
Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $72 3d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $75 7d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $75 23d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $75 101d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $75 108d
Will Leeds win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $74 119d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $73 124d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $73 136d
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $73 140d
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $73 141d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $73 142d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $74 143d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 144d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $76 144d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $76 145d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 145d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 146d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 147d
Will Netflix say "Warner Bros" during earnings call? BUY Yes 100¢ $76 150d
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 100¢ $74 151d
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 100¢ $74 153d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $74 154d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $74 156d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 100¢ $75 157d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $75 158d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $75 159d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 100¢ $75 161d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 100¢ $76 161d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $74.44 · official $74.44 (match) · 300 history records