trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 4 | +0.7% | -8.9% | 50% | 0% | -8.9% |
| ≤30d | 14 | -0.2% | -9.7% | 43% | 0% | -9.7% |
| ≤90d | 14 | -0.2% | -9.7% | 43% | 0% | -9.7% |
| all | 29 | -7.1% | -16.0% | 55% | 7% | -8.6% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -16.0% | 7% | -8.6% |
| 10% | -24.0% | 3% | -17.3% |
| 15% | -31.4% | 3% | -25.3% |
| 20% | -38.1% | 3% | -32.6% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? | Yes | 4¢ | 0¢ | $0 | $0 | −$0 (-87%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | Jun 19 | $40 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? | Jun 18 | $49 | $0 | +0% |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? | Jun 18 | $71 | +$1 | +1% |
| Israel closes its airspace by June 30? | Jun 17 | $35 | +$1 | +2% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | Jun 03 | $36 | −$1 | -2% |
| Will Alberta join the US? | Jun 03 | $40 | $0 | -0% |
| Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? | Jun 02 | $35 | $0 | +0% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | May 30 | $36 | $0 | +0% |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? | May 30 | $39 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel closes its airspace by May 31? | May 29 | $41 | −$2 | -6% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | May 28 | $29 | $0 | +0% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | May 28 | $118 | $0 | +0% |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia | May 28 | $38 | $0 | -0% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? | May 27 | $4 | $0 | +1% |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by Friday? | Jun 23 | $2 | $0 | +4% |
| Will Elon tweet 140–154 times May 30–June 6? | Jun 04 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Han Duck-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? | Jun 04 | $2 | $0 | +3% |
| Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? | May 19 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the Tampa Bay Lightning win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | May 06 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Dillon Danis win the match? | Apr 01 | $20 | +$3 | +16% |
| Will the Atlanta Hawks win the Eastern Conference? | Mar 26 | $21 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Elon tweet 575-599 times March 21-28? | Mar 25 | $20 | $0 | +2% |
| Will the highest temperature in London be 44°F or below on March 18? | Mar 22 | $20 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Elon tweet 700 or more times March 14-21? | Mar 22 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will the highest temperature in London be between 49-50°F on March 15? | Mar 17 | $20 | $0 | +1% |
| BSW wins 5% or more of vote in German election? | Mar 15 | $20 | +$1 | +3% |
| Will Elon tweet 600-649 times Feb 28 - March 7? | Mar 11 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Devils vs. Stars | Mar 06 | $13 | +$9 | +67% |
| Maple Leafs vs. Golden Knights | Mar 04 | $14 | $0 | -2% |