trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 8 | +6.4% | -3.7% | 25% | 25% | -22.0% |
| ≤30d | 8 | +6.4% | -3.7% | 25% | 25% | -22.0% |
| ≤90d | 12 | -18.6% | -26.4% | 25% | 25% | -48.9% |
| all | 12 | -18.6% | -26.4% | 25% | 25% | -48.9% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -26.4% | 25% | -48.9% |
| 10% | -33.4% | 25% | -53.8% |
| 15% | -39.9% | 17% | -58.3% |
| 20% | -45.8% | 17% | -62.4% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | Yes | 9¢ | 10¢ | $50 | $53 | +$3 (+6%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch? | Jun 19 | $31 | −$5 | -17% |
| United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 | Jun 19 | $30 | −$1 | -2% |
| United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 | Jun 19 | $51 | −$33 | -65% |
| Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | Jun 19 | $51 | −$2 | -5% |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 | Jun 19 | $51 | −$7 | -13% |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-19? | Jun 19 | $102 | −$92 | -90% |
| HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert | Jun 19 | $25 | +$20 | +78% |
| Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees | Jun 19 | $41 | +$67 | +165% |
| Deportivo Alavés vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 1.5 | May 13 | $51 | −$50 | -98% |
| Manchester City FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 4.5 | May 13 | $40 | +$10 | +25% |
| Manchester City FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: Both Teams to Score | May 13 | $101 | −$100 | -99% |
| Manchester City FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 10.5 Total Corners | May 13 | $102 | −$100 | -98% |