Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T21:42:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8D 0x8d81…c50f sports 16 markets active 0h ago coverage 37d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$149 (-19%) realized −$152 · open +$3
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%3W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$53now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 37d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 70% −$193
other 17% −$97
politics 7% −$2
world 6% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-26.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +6.4% -3.7% 25% 25% -22.0%
≤30d 8 +6.4% -3.7% 25% 25% -22.0%
≤90d 12 -18.6% -26.4% 25% 25% -48.9%
all 12 -18.6% -26.4% 25% 25% -48.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.4% 25% -48.9%
10% -33.4% 25% -53.8%
15% -39.9% 17% -58.3%
20% -45.8% 17% -62.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 69% · top 2 90% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -44% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -44% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -32% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$43 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.25 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

37d coverage
Net worth$53
Realized−$152
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses3 / 9
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)12 / 16
History coverage37d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 10¢ $50 $53 +$3 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch? Jun 19 $31 −$5 -17%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $30 −$1 -2%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $51 −$33 -65%
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 19 $51 −$2 -5%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 Jun 19 $51 −$7 -13%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $102 −$92 -90%
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert Jun 19 $25 +$20 +78%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 19 $41 +$67 +165%
Deportivo Alavés vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 1.5 May 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Manchester City FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 4.5 May 13 $40 +$10 +25%
Manchester City FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: Both Teams to Score May 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Manchester City FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 10.5 Total Corners May 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 AND Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 AND Germa BUY 19¢ $14 12m
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Egy BUY $11 20m
Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch? SELL No 32¢ $26 29m
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 50¢ $30 57m
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 49¢ $30 1h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 15¢ $18 1h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-2 BUY $26 1h
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? SELL Yes 60¢ $48 1h
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? BUY Yes 61¢ $51 1h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 41¢ $51 1h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 SELL Under 47¢ $44 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL No $10 1h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 52¢ $51 13h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes $50 13h
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert BUY Ugo Humbert 56¢ $25 21h
Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch? BUY No 35¢ $31 21h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY Chicago White Sox 37¢ $41 21h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 40¢ $102 21h
Deportivo Alavés vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 45¢ $51 37d
Manchester City FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 100¢ $50 37d
Manchester City FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 79¢ $40 37d
Manchester City FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 56¢ $101 37d
Manchester City FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 49¢ $102 37d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $52.78 · official $77.78 · 25 history records