Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:15:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8D 0x8d82…4994 politics 105 markets active 2h ago coverage 374d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$20 (-0%) realized −$20 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate10%10W / 94L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$78per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$69now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 38% −$8
politics 33% −$7
sports 18% −$3
economics 4% +$1
crypto 4% −$1
culture 2% −$1
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-16.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 4 -4.8% -13.9% 25% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 7 -21.3% -28.8% 29% 0% -10.1%
all 104 -7.5% -16.3% 10% 1% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.3% 1% -9.7%
10% -24.3% 1% -18.4%
15% -31.6% 1% -26.3%
20% -38.3% 1% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 67% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% too few recent
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.11 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

374d coverage
Net worth$69
Realized−$20
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses10 / 94
Open positions1
Markets (closed)104 / 105
History coverage374d
Avg bet$78
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 104 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $70 $69 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $141 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 04 $70 $0 +0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $2 $0 -19%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 29 $71 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 9? May 21 $69 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 21 $1 −$1 -95%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 11 $3 −$1 -30%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 10 $3 $0 -15%
Will Galatasaray win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 10 $2 $0 +29%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 04 $68 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 01 $69 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Feb 25 $70 $0 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 22 $1 $0 -11%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on February 21? Feb 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 21 $71 $0 -0%
Will Club Brugge win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 19 $75 −$1 -1%
Will SOLV Energy, Inc.'s market cap be less than $3.8B at market close Feb 13 $0 $0 -100%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 13 $153 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 09 $153 $0 -0%
Will Bournemouth win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 31 $147 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 29 $151 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 25 $77 $0 -0%
Will Leeds win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 25 $151 $0 -0%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 23 $75 $0 +0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 21 $76 $0 -0%
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 18 $145 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 16? Jan 17 $76 $0 +0%
New "Stranger Things" episode released by January 14? Jan 15 $74 $0 +0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 13 $75 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026? Jan 08 $0 $0 -100%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 08 $2 $0 -14%
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 08 $72 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 07 $3 $0 -12%
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 07 $75 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 03 $76 $0 -0%
Will Athletic Club win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 02 $75 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 29 $3 $0 -10%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 29 $231 $0 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 27 $1 $0 -20%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Dec 27 $76 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 26 $78 $0 -0%
Will West Ham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 24 $1 $0 -50%
Wicked vs Avatar: Bigger Domestic Opening Weekend? Dec 23 $77 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 20 Dec 20 $75 $0 +0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 16 $1 $0 +0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 10 $68 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 09 $2 $0 -17%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 06 $77 $0 -0%
Will Ajax win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 02 $79 $0 -0%
Will Nottm Forest win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Nov 30 $1 $0 -33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $70 1h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $68 46h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $68 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 100¢ $70 20d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 20d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 22d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $70 22d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $71 25d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 30d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 40d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 102d
Will Galatasaray win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 102d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 9? BUY Yes 100¢ $69 103d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 103d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 104d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 108d
Will Galatasaray win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 108d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $68 108d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $68 109d
Will Galatasaray win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 109d
Will Galatasaray win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 111d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 111d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $68 111d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $69 113d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 113d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 115d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 96¢ $70 115d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 96¢ $70 118d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 118d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on February 21? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 119d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $69.47 · official $69.47 (match) · 411 history records