Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T04:06:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
8D 0x8d83…8673 sports 98 markets active 2h ago coverage 147d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$129 (+1%) realized +$129 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR64%break-even
Win rate67%66W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$104per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$77est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$91
7 days−$830
14 days−$830
30 days−$1,231
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$99
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +64%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -11.2% -19.7% 64% 64% -36.5%
≤30d 40 -32.0% -38.5% 48% 45% -35.6%
≤90d 87 -2.6% -11.9% 64% 62% -13.9%
all 98 -0.4% -9.9% 67% 64% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 64% -8.6%
10% -18.5% 50% -17.4%
15% -26.4% 31% -25.4%
20% -33.6% 22% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +20% → late -20% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$71 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

147d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$129
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses66 / 32
Est. fees paid−$77
Open positions0
Markets (closed)98 / 98
History coverage147d
Avg bet$104
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 98 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) Jun 21 $101 +$61 +60%
UFC Fight Night: Ion Cutelaba vs. Navajo Stirling (Light Heavyweight, Jun 21 $101 +$31 +30%
UFC Fight Night: Melsik Baghdasaryan vs. Murtazali Magomedov (Featherw Jun 21 $138 +$35 +25%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 21 $40 +$5 +13%
UFC Fight Night: Melissa Mullins vs. Bia Mesquita (Women's Bantamweigh Jun 20 $60 +$12 +20%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 20 $50 −$35 -70%
UFC Fight Night: Kevin Borjas vs. Andre Lima (Flyweight, Main Card) Jun 20 $201 −$200 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Gaston Bolaños vs. Michael Aswell (Featherweight, Pre Jun 18 $101 −$100 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $1,390 −$693 -50%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $60 +$15 +24%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $302 +$103 +34%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $75 +$17 +23%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $60 +$20 +33%
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main Jun 07 $172 −$170 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna (Bantamweight, Main Jun 07 $41 +$34 +84%
UFC Fight Night: Matt Schnell vs. Alessandro Costa (Catchweight, Preli Jun 06 $60 +$10 +16%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 06 $25 −$25 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Yuneisy Duben vs. Jeisla Chaves (Women's Flyweight, P Jun 06 $30 +$13 +41%
UFC Fight Night: Joanderson Brito vs. Jordan Leavitt (Featherweight, P Jun 06 $30 −$10 -33%
UFC Fight Night: Brendan Allen vs. Edmen Shahbazyan (Middleweight, Mai Jun 06 $10 −$10 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Farés Ziam vs. Tom Nolan (Lightweight, Prelims) May 31 $60 −$60 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Loma Lookboonmee vs. Jaqueline Amorim (Women's Straww May 31 $10 −$10 -100%
O/U 1.5 Rounds May 31 $10 −$10 -100%
O/U 2.5 Rounds May 31 $25 −$25 -100%
O/U 1.5 Rounds May 31 $30 −$30 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Angela Hill vs. Jingnan Xiong (Women's Strawweight, P May 31 $30 −$30 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Cody Brundage vs. Andre Petroski (Middleweight, Preli May 31 $40 −$40 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Tai Tuivasa vs. Louie Sutherland (Heavyweight, Main C May 31 $40 −$40 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Malcolm Wellmaker vs. Juan Diaz (Bantamweight, Main C May 31 $50 −$50 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Dooho Choi vs. Daniel Santos (Featherweight, Main Car May 31 $92 −$92 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Song Yadong vs. Deiveson Figueiredo (Bantamweight, Ma May 30 $453 +$100 +22%
UFC Fight Night: Sergei Pavlovich vs. Tallison Teixeira (Heavyweight, May 30 $101 +$21 +21%
O/U 2.5 Rounds May 30 $15 +$16 +107%
UFC Fight Night: Alex Perez vs. Sumudaerji (Flyweight, Main Card) May 30 $10 +$1 +8%
UFC Fight Night: Rei Tsuruya vs. Luis Gurule (Bantamweight, Prelims) May 30 $35 +$10 +27%
UFC Fight Night: Aoriqileng vs. Cody Haddon (Bantamweight, Prelims) May 30 $40 +$10 +26%
UFC Fight Night: Kai Asakura vs. Cameron Smotherman (Bantamweight, Mai May 30 $50 −$1 -2%
O/U 2.5 Rounds May 30 $40 +$9 +23%
O/U 2.5 Rounds May 30 $20 −$20 -99%
MVP Fight Night: Ronda Rousey vs. Gina Carano May 17 $251 +$54 +22%
MVP Fight Night: Francis Ngannou vs. Philipe Lins May 17 $100 +$11 +11%
UFC Fight Night: Arnold Allen vs. Melquizael Costa (Featherweight, Mai May 17 $152 +$115 +75%
UFC Fight Night: Tommy Gantt vs. Artur Minev (Lightweight, Prelims) May 17 $51 +$29 +57%
O/U 2.5 Rounds May 10 $51 −$3 -5%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $101 −$67 -66%
UFC 328: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card) May 10 $25 +$37 +145%
O/U 2.5 Rounds May 10 $25 +$6 +23%
UFC 328: Jeremy Stephens vs. King Green (Lightweight, Main Card) May 10 $50 +$13 +26%
Fight to Go the Distance? May 09 $25 +$17 +68%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) SELL Manel Kape 100¢ $162 1h
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Manel Kape 64¢ $51 2h
UFC Fight Night: Ion Cutelaba vs. Navajo Stirling (Light Heavyweight, SELL Navajo Stirling 100¢ $131 2h
UFC Fight Night: Melsik Baghdasaryan vs. Murtazali Magomedov (Featherw SELL Murtazali Magomedov 100¢ $173 3h
UFC Fight Night: Melsik Baghdasaryan vs. Murtazali Magomedov (Featherw BUY Murtazali Magomedov 81¢ $77 3h
O/U 1.5 Rounds SELL Over 82¢ $46 3h
UFC Fight Night: Ion Cutelaba vs. Navajo Stirling (Light Heavyweight, BUY Navajo Stirling 76¢ $101 3h
UFC Fight Night: Melissa Mullins vs. Bia Mesquita (Women's Bantamweigh SELL Bia Mesquita 100¢ $72 4h
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Over 72¢ $40 4h
O/U 1.5 Rounds SELL Over 24¢ $15 4h
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Over 78¢ $50 5h
UFC Fight Night: Kevin Borjas vs. Andre Lima (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Andre Lima 85¢ $100 5h
UFC Fight Night: Melsik Baghdasaryan vs. Murtazali Magomedov (Featherw BUY Murtazali Magomedov 77¢ $60 14h
UFC Fight Night: Gaston Bolaños vs. Michael Aswell (Featherweight, Pre BUY Michael Aswell 78¢ $101 2d
UFC Fight Night: Melissa Mullins vs. Bia Mesquita (Women's Bantamweigh BUY Bia Mesquita 83¢ $60 2d
UFC Fight Night: Kevin Borjas vs. Andre Lima (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Andre Lima 84¢ $100 2d
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Manel Kape 60¢ $51 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Ilia Topuria 42¢ $697 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 81¢ $485 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $101 6d
O/U 1.5 Rounds SELL Over 100¢ $75 6d
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Mauricio Ruffy 81¢ $75 6d
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) SELL Bo Nickal 99¢ $80 6d
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Over 80¢ $60 7d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 82¢ $503 13d
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Josh Hokit 74¢ $302 13d
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main BUY Belal Muhammad 53¢ $51 14d
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main BUY Belal Muhammad 51¢ $51 14d
UFC Fight Night: Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna (Bantamweight, Main SELL Bryce Mitchell 99¢ $75 14d
UFC Fight Night: Matt Schnell vs. Alessandro Costa (Catchweight, Preli SELL Alessandro Costa 99¢ $70 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 215 history records