Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:22:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8D 0x8d83…0905 sports 135 markets active 0h ago coverage 12d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (59 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$296 (+2%) realized +$287 · open +$9
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate65%87W / 46L
Drawdown67%max
Avg bet$93per market
Trades / day58.9pace
Fees−$100est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$84now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$57
7 days−$264
14 days+$254
30 days+$254
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 79% +$95
other 20% +$243
crypto 0% −$57
world 0% −$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (59 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 83 -4.0% -13.2% 64% 46% -12.5%
≤30d 133 -2.3% -11.6% 65% 44% -7.3%
≤90d 133 -2.3% -11.6% 65% 44% -7.3%
all 133 -2.3% -11.6% 65% 44% -7.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover58.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.6% 44% -7.3%
10% ← realistic here -20.1% 26% -16.2%
15% -27.8% 14% -24.3%
20% -34.9% 11% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$31 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.18 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$84
Realized+$287
Unrealized+$9
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses87 / 46
Est. fees paid−$100
Open positions2
Markets (closed)133 / 135
History coverage12d
Avg bet$93
Trades / day58.9
Drawdown67%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 133 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 92¢ $50 $59 +$9 (+19%)
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Qinwen Zheng Talia Gibson 52¢ 50¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Jun 17 $315 −$21 -7%
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 17 $253 −$27 -11%
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier Jun 17 $94 −$69 -73%
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery Jun 17 $161 −$72 -45%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $215 +$3 +1%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $383 +$34 +9%
Fortaleza EC vs. América FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $20 −$18 -89%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $330 +$39 +12%
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres Jun 16 $129 −$68 -53%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $81 +$51 +62%
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 16 $90 +$17 +19%
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 16 $31 +$32 +104%
Nottingham Open: Sara Bejlek vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 16 $73 +$9 +12%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 16 $125 +$25 +20%
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Sofia Kenin Jun 16 $152 +$18 +12%
Grass Court Championships: Clara Tauson vs Diane Parry Jun 16 $25 +$1 +5%
HSBC Championships: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 16 $25 +$2 +10%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 16 $132 +$43 +32%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 16 $133 +$25 +19%
Nottingham Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 16 $106 −$58 -54%
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron Jun 16 $15 +$1 +10%
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 16 $50 +$11 +22%
Halle Open: Joao Fonseca vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 16 $50 +$10 +19%
Halle Open: Karen Khachanov vs Ethan Quinn Jun 16 $11 +$25 +232%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 16 $214 +$1 +0%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $85 −$2 -2%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $62 −$46 -74%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $25 −$19 -75%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings Jun 16 $125 +$1 +1%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $10 +$4 +41%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$21 +209%
ITF Tauste: Belle Thompson vs Celia Anson Sanchez Jun 15 $85 +$2 +2%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$11 -54%
Asuncion 2: Carlos Maria Zarate vs Juan Sebastian Gomez Jun 15 $123 +$14 +11%
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt Jun 15 $45 −$16 -36%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $5 +$5 +90%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $42 −$10 -25%
Nottingham Open: Anna Blinkova vs Taylah Preston Jun 15 $13 −$13 -98%
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Francesca Jones Jun 15 $12 +$12 +95%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $30 +$10 +32%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Zachary Svajda Jun 15 $31 +$1 +4%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $23 +$8 +33%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 −$8 -82%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $48 −$48 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $57 +$6 +10%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $30 −$4 -14%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $57 −$57 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $35 +$22 +62%
Nottingham 2: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Michael Zheng Jun 14 $75 −$18 -24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Qinwen Zheng BUY Talia Gibson 52¢ $25 4m
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Qinwen Zheng SELL Qinwen Zheng 47¢ $22 5m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $50 15m
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Qinwen Zheng BUY Qinwen Zheng 63¢ $30 19m
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova SELL Aryna Sabalenka 100¢ $177 22m
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova BUY Aryna Sabalenka 93¢ $165 47m
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova SELL Ekaterina Alexandrova 10¢ $12 47m
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova BUY Ekaterina Alexandrova 21¢ $25 53m
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova SELL Aryna Sabalenka 76¢ $101 53m
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova SELL Aryna Sabalenka 76¢ $4 53m
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova BUY Aryna Sabalenka 96¢ $100 1h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Learner Tien 29¢ $10 1h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova BUY Aryna Sabalenka 73¢ $25 1h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime SELL Felix Auger-Aliassime 70¢ $111 1h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 58¢ $11 1h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 58¢ $53 1h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 58¢ $29 1h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime SELL Felix Auger-Aliassime 60¢ $93 1h
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier BUY Hubert Hurkacz 65¢ $66 1h
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier BUY Hubert Hurkacz 65¢ $3 1h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 64¢ $100 1h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime SELL Learner Tien 35¢ $32 1h
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier SELL Daniel Altmaier 31¢ $13 1h
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier BUY Daniel Altmaier 61¢ $25 1h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Learner Tien 53¢ $50 2h
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery BUY Adrian Mannarino 54¢ $72 2h
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery SELL Arthur Fery 44¢ $71 2h
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery BUY Arthur Fery 54¢ $59 3h
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery BUY Arthur Fery 54¢ $27 3h
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery BUY Arthur Fery 54¢ $3 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $83.69 · official $83.69 (match) · 735 history records