Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T13:02:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

8D
0x8d86…4c5b
sports · 224 markets active 5h ago
1.5score
−$43 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$34 · open −$9
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$301
Realized−$34
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses109 / 93
Est. fees paid−$33
Open positions22
Markets (closed)202 / 224
History coverage118d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 22 History 202 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$90
7 days+$40
14 days+$100
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 FURIA 60¢ 100¢ $20 $33 +$13 (+67%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 84¢ 99¢ $28 $33 +$5 (+18%)
Knicks vs. Spurs Knicks 36¢ 36¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 58¢ 62¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+6%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 12? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 12? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 60¢ 60¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Golden Knights 48¢ 48¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Yes 48¢ 46¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 12? Yes 92¢ 98¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+6%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 91¢ 92¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 12? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 12? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Pittsburgh Pirates 58¢ 56¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron Marcos Giron 60¢ 57¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Baltimore Orioles 57¢ 56¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-1%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 96¢ 99¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+3%)
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes 60¢ 72¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+20%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-20%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-70%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-93%)
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI T1 52¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
76ers vs. Hornets Hornets 65¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Minnesota Twins Detroit Tigers 55¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Celtics vs. 76ers 76ers 28¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Athletics vs. Houston Astros Jun 12 $7 +$7 +97%
Heilbronn: Luka Mikrut vs Marvin Moeller Jun 12 $10 +$5 +46%
Birmingham: Nikola Bartunkova vs Mika Stojsavljevic Jun 12 $10 +$5 +50%
Makarska: Noma Noha Akugue vs Sara Sorribes Tormo Jun 12 $10 +$6 +62%
Tyler: Andre Ilagan vs Yuta Shimizu Jun 12 $10 +$8 +76%
T20 Blast: Worcestershire vs Glamorgan Jun 12 $10 +$8 +83%
Prostejov: Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo vs Lautaro Midon Jun 12 $10 +$8 +83%
T20 Blast: Nottinghamshire vs Warwickshire Jun 12 $20 +$14 +69%
Panathinaikos vs. Olympiacos B.C. Jun 12 $20 +$15 +73%
T20 Blast: Yorkshire vs Lancashire Jun 12 $20 +$17 +83%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 12 $10 −$3 -27%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 05 $10 −$10 -99%
Anadolu Efes vs. Fenerbahce Jun 05 $20 −$20 -99%
Perugia: Pablo Llamas Ruiz vs Daniel Merida Aguilar Jun 05 $20 −$20 -99%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 28? Jun 02 $10 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 28? Jun 02 $11 +$1 +10%
Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 02 $10 +$10 +101%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 02 $10 +$12 +114%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 02 $10 +$12 +114%
Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 02 $10 +$12 +114%
Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers Jun 02 $10 +$13 +129%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Jun 02 $58 $0 +1%
Kansas City Royals vs. Texas Rangers May 28 $10 −$10 -98%
Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians May 28 $10 −$10 -98%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles May 28 $10 −$10 -98%
Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets May 28 $10 −$10 -98%
Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates May 28 $10 −$10 -98%
San Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals May 28 $10 −$10 -98%
Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds May 28 $10 −$10 -98%
Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox May 28 $10 −$10 -98%
Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox May 28 $10 −$10 -98%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 28 $20 −$20 -98%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 28 $20 −$20 -98%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens May 28 $20 +$14 +70%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 28 $20 +$17 +83%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 28 $20 +$21 +101%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 28 $20 +$24 +119%
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights May 28 $20 +$25 +124%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 28 $20 +$10 +48%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens May 28 $20 +$14 +70%
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights May 23 $20 −$20 -99%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Toronto Blue Jays May 23 $10 −$10 -99%
Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs May 23 $10 −$10 -99%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds May 23 $20 −$20 -99%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 23 $10 −$10 -98%
LoL: Team WE vs LNG Esports (BO5) - LPL Play-In May 23 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? May 23 $3 $0 +6%
San Diego Padres vs. Seattle Mariners May 23 $10 $0 +0%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays May 23 $10 +$7 +73%
New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals May 23 $10 +$7 +73%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 87% −$41
crypto 5% −$1
world 4% +$13
other 1% $0
tech 1% −$8
economics 1% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Baltimore Orioles 57¢ $7 5h
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 58¢ $10 5h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 12? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 5h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 5h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 5h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 5h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 92¢ $10 5h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 5h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 5h
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron BUY Marcos Giron 60¢ $10 5h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 52¢ $20 5h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FURIA 60¢ $20 5h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 60¢ $20 5h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $20 5h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Golden Knights 48¢ $20 5h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $31 5h
Athletics vs. Houston Astros BUY Houston Astros 50¢ $7 6d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 58¢ $10 6d
Panathinaikos vs. Olympiacos B.C. BUY Panathinaikos 57¢ $10 6d
Anadolu Efes vs. Fenerbahce BUY Fenerbahce 57¢ $10 6d
T20 Blast: Yorkshire vs Lancashire BUY Yorkshire 54¢ $10 6d
T20 Blast: Nottinghamshire vs Warwickshire BUY Nottinghamshire 58¢ $10 6d
Perugia: Pablo Llamas Ruiz vs Daniel Merida Aguilar BUY Pablo Llamas Ruiz 60¢ $10 6d
Prostejov: Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo vs Lautaro Midon BUY Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo 54¢ $10 6d
Anadolu Efes vs. Fenerbahce BUY Fenerbahce 57¢ $10 6d
Panathinaikos vs. Olympiacos B.C. BUY Panathinaikos 57¢ $10 6d
T20 Blast: Yorkshire vs Lancashire BUY Yorkshire 54¢ $10 6d
T20 Blast: Nottinghamshire vs Warwickshire BUY Nottinghamshire 59¢ $10 6d
T20 Blast: Worcestershire vs Glamorgan BUY Worcestershire 54¢ $10 6d
Makarska: Noma Noha Akugue vs Sara Sorribes Tormo BUY Sara Sorribes Tormo 61¢ $10 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +28.1% +15.9% 71% 71% +9.8%
≤30d 57 -1.0% -10.4% 56% 47% -8.8%
≤90d 177 -0.7% -10.1% 55% 46% -7.7%
all 202 -3.8% -12.9% 54% 45% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 45% -10.7%
10% -21.3% 44% -19.2%
15% -28.9% 43% -27.0%
20% -35.8% 38% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $301.48 · official $301.48 (match) · 383 history records