Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T08:23:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
8D 0x8d86…966f sports 136 markets active 9h ago coverage 20d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$21 (+3%) realized +$21 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate48%64W / 70L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day13.3pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$34
7 days−$77
14 days−$17
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% +$28
other 9% −$19
crypto 9% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 58 -3.6% -12.8% 33% 31% -41.4%
≤30d 134 +0.4% -9.1% 48% 45% -11.2%
≤90d 134 +0.4% -9.1% 48% 45% -11.2%
all 134 +0.4% -9.1% 48% 45% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 45% -11.2%
10% -17.8% 43% -19.7%
15% -25.8% 38% -27.5%
20% -33.0% 30% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized+$21
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses64 / 70
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions2
Markets (closed)134 / 136
History coverage20d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day13.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 134 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs FURIA 58¢ 60¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 64¢ 62¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $70 −$12 -18%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $10 −$5 -54%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $17 +$6 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 18 $2 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 18 $7 −$4 -59%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 18 $2 $0 -6%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $5 +$4 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 18 $2 +$3 +148%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +44%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 +$2 +48%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 +$1 +40%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $7 −$6 -82%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $12 +$3 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs NRG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $4 +$1 +28%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 +$3 +308%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 14 $10 −$6 -60%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $5 +$3 +62%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $5 +$7 +137%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 −$1 -64%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 $0 +0%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 +$1 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Team Falcons 99¢ $27 9h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Vitality 38¢ $12 9h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 13¢ $1 9h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Team Falcons 90¢ $25 9h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 23¢ $2 9h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 43¢ $3 9h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 40¢ $5 9h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 73¢ $40 9h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 29¢ $1 9h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 48¢ $2 11h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 52¢ $5 11h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Vitality 57¢ $5 12h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Team Falcons 37¢ $6 12h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 64¢ $5 12h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY FURIA 58¢ $5 12h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $5 13h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 27¢ $5 15h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 51¢ $2 15h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 55¢ $3 16h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 59¢ $5 17h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 36h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 30¢ $5 36h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL FURIA 96¢ $16 36h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 63¢ $5 36h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 67¢ $6 37h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL FURIA 53¢ $4 37h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 52¢ $5 37h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 38¢ $3 38h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL 9z 59¢ $6 38h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Aurora Gaming 100¢ $9 40h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.06 · official $9.93 (match) · 401 history records