Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:58:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8D 0x8d88…dea7 sports 19 markets active 1h ago coverage 18d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$103 (-6%) realized −$65 · open −$38
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate56%10W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$93per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$24est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12
7 days+$12
14 days+$12
30 days−$138
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% −$162
other 5% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-6.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +21.0% +9.4% 100% 100% +9.4%
≤30d 18 +3.5% -6.3% 56% 56% -16.9%
≤90d 18 +3.5% -6.3% 56% 56% -16.9%
all 18 +3.5% -6.3% 56% 56% -16.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.3% 56% -16.9%
10% -15.3% 50% -24.9%
15% -23.5% 44% -32.1%
20% -31.0% 44% -38.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 41% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +49% → late -42% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$77 vs −$113 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized−$65
Unrealized−$38
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses10 / 8
Est. fees paid−$24
Open positions1
Markets (closed)18 / 19
History coverage18d
Avg bet$93
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs FURIA 31¢ 14¢ $67 $29 −$38 (-56%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $57 +$12 +21%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $64 −$62 -98%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $41 +$22 +54%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $105 −$102 -98%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $26 −$25 -97%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $111 +$163 +147%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $193 −$193 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $314 −$314 -100%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $96 +$126 +132%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $93 +$94 +101%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 04 $77 −$77 -100%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs NRG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $151 +$103 +68%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 04 $102 +$79 +77%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 04 $31 −$31 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-1.5) Jun 04 $99 +$148 +151%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 03 $23 +$8 +33%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 03 $13 +$10 +81%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY FURIA 31¢ $69 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $68 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $57 8d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 39¢ $64 14d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner SELL Team Yandex 99¢ $64 14d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Yandex 63¢ $41 14d
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY MIBR 50¢ $102 14d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY M80 34¢ $105 14d
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? BUY Yes 2¢ $26 14d
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs SELL LGD Gaming 99¢ $275 14d
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs BUY LGD Gaming 39¢ $111 14d
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 64¢ $193 14d
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs BUY Aurora 66¢ $314 15d
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 SELL MIBR 100¢ $222 15d
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY MIBR 42¢ $96 15d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs SELL Team Yandex 99¢ $188 15d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs BUY Team Yandex 48¢ $93 15d
Counter-Strike: M80 vs NRG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 SELL M80 100¢ $254 16d
Counter-Strike: M80 vs NRG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY M80 58¢ $151 17d
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs BUY Team Liquid 49¢ $77 17d
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs SELL Team Yandex 100¢ $181 17d
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs BUY Team Yandex 55¢ $102 17d
Spread: Spurs (-1.5) BUY Knicks 39¢ $99 17d
Counter-Strike: M80 vs B8 - Map 2 Winner BUY M80 57¢ $31 17d
Counter-Strike: M80 vs B8 - Map 1 Winner SELL B8 100¢ $31 17d
Counter-Strike: M80 vs B8 - Map 1 Winner BUY B8 74¢ $23 17d
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL BetBoom Team 100¢ $23 18d
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 54¢ $13 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.10 · official $30.18 · 41 history records