Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:01:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8D 0x8d89…1db1 world 32 markets active 1h ago coverage 398d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate48%15W / 16L
Drawdown62%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$4
14 days+$4
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 60% +$4
other 23% −$1
crypto 6% $0
politics 4% −$1
economics 3% $0
tech 3% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +3.9% -6.0% 57% 14% -7.8%
≤30d 14 +1.8% -7.9% 36% 7% -8.8%
≤90d 14 +1.8% -7.9% 36% 7% -8.8%
all 31 -0.7% -10.2% 48% 3% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 3% -9.1%
10% -18.8% 3% -17.8%
15% -26.6% 0% -25.7%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 78% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.57 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.36 per $1 lost it wins $2.36
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

398d coverage
Net worth$46
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses15 / 16
Open positions1
Markets (closed)31 / 32
History coverage398d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown62%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 90¢ 90¢ $44 $44 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 16 $46 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $48 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $1 $0 -2%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $56 +$3 +6%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $51 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $47 $0 +1%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $3 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 08 $47 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 07 $43 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $47 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $2 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 06 $28 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $18 $0 -2%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 05 $37 $0 +0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Dec 14 $2 $0 +5%
Will Trump announce Arthur Laffer as next Fed Chair? Dec 14 $2 $0 +1%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 40% and 60% on August 15 Jul 01 $18 $0 +0%
Will Scottie Scheffler win The 2025 U.S. Open? Jun 15 $2 −$1 -37%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in June? Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Will Robert Negoiță be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 11 $5 $0 -0%
US 10Y Treasury yield above 5% by June 30? Jun 09 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 National League Championsh Jun 06 $5 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump visit Canada in 2025? Jun 06 $4 −$1 -22%
Will Isack Hadjar finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? Jun 03 $22 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture Yunakivka before June? Jun 03 $21 +$1 +4%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in May? May 25 $20 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90k in May? May 25 $20 $0 -0%
Will Sam Altman buy TikTok? May 25 $2 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after July 2025 meeting? May 24 $21 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb May 22 $20 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jae-myung win more than 65% of the vote in the South Korea el May 16 $22 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $44 1h
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $5 47h
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $39 47h
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $44 47h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 22¢ $14 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $6 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $4 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $46 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $46 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $46 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $46 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $4 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $4 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 81¢ $31 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 81¢ $15 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 81¢ $47 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 4¢ $3 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 4¢ $3 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $7 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $12 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $17 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.85 · official $45.85 (match) · 116 history records