Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:46:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8D 0x8d8b…9617 crypto 846 markets active 1h ago coverage 120d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$425 (-1%) realized −$425 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate52%437W / 409L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$82per market
Trades / day13.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$770
7 days−$268
14 days+$212
30 days−$727
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,468
other 0% +$89
sports 0% −$65
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -17.2% -25.1% 50% 50% -19.1%
≤30d 37 -19.7% -27.4% 46% 46% -19.0%
≤90d 390 -3.4% -12.6% 53% 53% -13.1%
all 846 -4.2% -13.3% 52% 51% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.3% 51% -11.4%
10% -21.6% 50% -19.9%
15% -29.2% 49% -27.6%
20% -36.1% 47% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$68 vs −$76 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

120d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$425
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses437 / 409
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)846 / 846
History coverage120d
Avg bet$82
Trades / day13.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 846 Trades
no open positions (394 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 17 $206 −$200 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 17 $72 +$34 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $417 −$405 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 16 $278 −$270 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 16 $103 +$72 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $41 −$40 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 15 $268 +$201 +75%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $66 −$65 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 12 $268 +$199 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 12 $72 −$70 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 12 $258 +$183 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 11 $258 +$196 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 11 $155 −$150 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 11 $102 +$48 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 10 $832 +$518 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 10 $372 +$298 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 10 $248 −$240 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 10 $155 +$106 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 09 $371 −$360 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 09 $248 −$240 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 08 $93 +$57 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 08 $154 +$82 +53%
Will Justin Rose finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 the Memorial Tournam Jun 08 $102 +$201 +197%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 05 $155 +$107 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 04 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 02 $112 −$112 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 02 $78 −$78 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 01 $108 +$81 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 01 $72 −$70 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET May 23 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET May 23 $378 −$358 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET May 23 $218 −$208 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET May 23 $32 −$30 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET May 23 $247 −$240 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET May 23 $165 −$160 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET May 21 $165 +$100 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET May 21 $165 +$138 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET May 13 $263 +$204 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET May 13 $165 −$160 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET May 12 $165 +$128 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET May 11 $175 −$170 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET May 11 $165 +$131 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET May 11 $165 +$144 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET May 11 $57 −$55 -96%
Will Nicolai Hojgaard win the 2026 Truist Championship? May 10 $33 −$32 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET May 09 $175 −$170 -97%
Will Alex Fitzpatrick win the 2026 Truist Championship? May 09 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET May 09 $20 +$15 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET May 08 $263 +$204 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET May 08 $176 −$170 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $206 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET SELL Down 84¢ $106 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $72 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $417 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $278 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $175 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $103 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $41 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $469 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $268 2d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 19¢ $10 5d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 19¢ $5 5d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 33¢ $51 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $72 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $0 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $38 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $9 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $19 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $154 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $53 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $20 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $20 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1870 history records