Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T05:16:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
8D 0x8d8b…9376 crypto 1599 markets active 2h ago coverage 82d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 82d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$141 (-2%) realized −$141 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate46%737W / 862L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day28.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$3
14 days+$13
30 days−$119
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$627
other 0% +$4
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-19.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 +7.5% -2.7% 58% 52% -8.2%
≤30d 291 -11.0% -19.4% 45% 35% -16.8%
≤90d 1599 -11.2% -19.7% 46% 42% -18.1%
all 1599 -11.2% -19.7% 46% 42% -18.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.7% 42% -18.1%
10% ← realistic here -27.4% 38% -25.9%
15% -34.4% 34% -33.1%
20% -40.8% 31% -39.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

82d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$141
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses737 / 862
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1599 / 1599
History coverage82d ⚠
Avg bet$4
Trades / day28.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1599 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 28 $189 +$9 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 28 $3 −$2 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 27 $5 +$7 +140%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 27 $21 −$15 -72%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 27 $10 −$9 -88%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -89%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 27 $10 +$9 +88%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 27 $2 $0 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 27 $21 −$11 -55%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 27 $41 +$3 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$2 -45%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$2 -34%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 27 $5 +$5 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 27 $5 +$5 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 27 $4 +$4 +86%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 27 $2 +$2 +86%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 27 $2 +$2 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 26 $2 −$1 -71%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 26 $2 +$2 +79%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 26 $4 +$2 +45%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 26 $3 +$1 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 26 $2 +$2 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 26 $4 +$4 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 23 $3 −$1 -49%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -61%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 21 $1 +$1 +97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 21 $2 +$1 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$1 -46%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 21 $3 $0 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$2 +49%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 21 $1 $0 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 20 $3 +$2 +90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 20 $2 +$3 +101%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 20 $2 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 20 $7 −$3 -37%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 20 $43 +$1 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -84%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 20 $2 +$1 +28%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 20 $2 +$1 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 20 $2 +$1 +34%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 20 $3 +$1 +46%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -88%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 20 $2 $0 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 20 $2 +$1 +28%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 20 $2 $0 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $189 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET SELL Up 28¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $5 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET SELL Up 16¢ $6 17h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $21 17h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET SELL Up 7¢ $1 17h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 18h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET SELL Up 8¢ $0 18h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 18h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $10 23h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET SELL Down 92¢ $2 23h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $2 23h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET SELL Up 26¢ $9 24h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $30 24h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $21 24h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET SELL Up 27¢ $5 24h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $10 24h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET SELL Up 30¢ $3 24h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 24h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET SELL Up 35¢ $3 24h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 24h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 25h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 25h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $4 28h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 28h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $2 29h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 29h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET SELL Down 18¢ $1 29h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 26, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $2 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records