Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T04:38:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8D 0x8d91…2109 sports 34 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$133 (+6%) realized +$156 · open −$23
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate48%15W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$69per market
Trades / day11.6pace
Fees−$24est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$227now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 52% +$31
other 30% +$6
crypto 13% $0
economics 4% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-24.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -16.9% -24.8% 48% 48% -6.5%
≤30d 31 -16.9% -24.8% 48% 48% -6.5%
≤90d 31 -16.9% -24.8% 48% 48% -6.5%
all 31 -16.9% -24.8% 48% 48% -6.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.8% 48% -6.5%
10% -32.0% 45% -15.5%
15% -38.6% 35% -23.6%
20% -44.6% 19% -31.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$41 vs −$34 · ×1.2 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$227
Realized+$156
Unrealized−$23
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses15 / 16
Est. fees paid−$24
Open positions3
Markets (closed)31 / 34
History coverage4d
Avg bet$69
Trades / day11.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? No 76¢ 82¢ $100 $108 +$8 (+8%)
Will Brazil reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 18¢ 12¢ $100 $70 −$30 (-30%)
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 Under 36¢ 36¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 27 $51 +$17 +33%
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Jun 27 $101 −$50 -49%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $202 −$24 -12%
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $202 +$110 +55%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 26 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 26 $51 +$127 +250%
Will Tunisia vs. Netherlands end in a draw? Jun 25 $51 −$50 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $51 +$39 +76%
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 25 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $51 −$20 -40%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 24 $203 +$98 +48%
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) Jun 24 $61 −$60 -98%
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $302 +$65 +21%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $51 +$28 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 24 $26 +$13 +50%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 24 $50 +$23 +46%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $51 +$25 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 24 $26 +$14 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 23 $25 −$25 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 23 $26 +$11 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 23 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 23 $25 +$7 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 23 $26 +$11 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 23 $102 +$28 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 23 $25 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $50 −$50 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 36¢ $51 2m
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 63¢ $68 3m
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 65¢ $58 5m
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 55¢ $51 19m
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 46¢ $51 22m
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) SELL New Zealand 28¢ $52 24m
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) BUY New Zealand 53¢ $101 41m
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 62¢ $178 45m
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 69¢ $202 1h
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 64¢ $202 13h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 47¢ $51 26h
Will Tunisia vs. Netherlands end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $51 39h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 53¢ $51 39h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $51 39h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $51 39h
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 40¢ $51 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 36¢ $30 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 58¢ $51 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 56¢ $51 2d
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) SELL Brazil 84¢ $156 2d
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) BUY Brazil 39¢ $61 2d
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) SELL Brazil 76¢ $144 2d
Will Brazil reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 18¢ $102 2d
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 53¢ $203 2d
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 91¢ $367 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 74¢ $302 2d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY No 76¢ $101 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $25 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $26 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $227.22 · official $225.84 (match) · 57 history records