Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T15:41:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8D 0x8d96…a7fb crypto 1421 markets active 0h ago coverage 30d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 30d only
✗ bot/MM pace (68 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$230 (+1%) realized +$230 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate92%1312W / 108L
Drawdown71%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day68.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$349
7 days−$189
14 days+$73
30 days+$165
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$165
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (68 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 450 -5.5% -14.5% 90% 4% -11.0%
≤30d 1417 -0.3% -9.8% 92% 5% -9.0%
≤90d 1420 -0.3% -9.8% 92% 5% -9.0%
all 1420 -0.3% -9.8% 92% 5% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover68.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.8% 5% -9.0%
10% ← realistic here -18.5% 3% -17.7%
15% -26.3% 2% -25.7%
20% -33.6% 2% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$7 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.22 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$230
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)92%
Wins / losses1312 / 108
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1420 / 1421
History coverage30d ⚠
Avg bet$20
Trades / day68.0
Drawdown71%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1420 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $25 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $25 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$2 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 15 $17 −$9 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $9 −$4 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $83 +$18 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $26 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 15 $99 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 15 $108 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $25 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $25 +$1 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET SELL Up 54¢ $5 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $4 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $10 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $10 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $15 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $1 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $82 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $40 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $99 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $58 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $26 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records