Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T07:13:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8D 0x8d97…9c26 weather 179 markets active 1h ago coverage 19d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$48 (+6%) realized +$47 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate46%81W / 97L
Drawdown97%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day29.2pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$40
7 days+$50
14 days+$40
30 days+$34
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 78% +$45
weather 17% −$16
crypto 4% +$6
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-16.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 -1.4% -10.8% 69% 31% -2.8%
≤30d 178 -7.8% -16.6% 46% 30% -5.7%
≤90d 178 -7.8% -16.6% 46% 30% -5.7%
all 178 -7.8% -16.6% 46% 30% -5.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.6% 30% -5.7%
10% ← realistic here -24.5% 22% -14.8%
15% -31.8% 15% -23.0%
20% -38.5% 12% -30.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.61 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.35 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized+$47
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses81 / 97
Open positions1
Markets (closed)178 / 179
History coverage19d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day29.2
Drawdown97%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 178 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $28 $29 +$1 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 26 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Curacao advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 21 $29 +$6 +20%
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $35 +$6 +18%
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 3 Japan? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 21 $61 +$14 +24%
Will Ivory Coast win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $36 +$4 +11%
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $33 +$3 +10%
Will Paraguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 20 $48 +$9 +18%
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 20 $46 +$11 +24%
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $66 −$13 -20%
Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $2 $0 -21%
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $1 $0 +20%
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $5 $0 +0%
Will Croatia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 18 $5 $0 +2%
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $5 $0 +8%
Will Colombia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 18 $10 −$2 -19%
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $5 $0 +7%
Will Uzbekistan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 18 $3 −$1 -24%
Will Ghana advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $36 +$17 +47%
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $10 $0 +1%
Will DR Congo advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 17 $10 +$1 +6%
Will Brazil reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $1 $0 +24%
Will Brazil reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $2 $0 +5%
Will England reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $5 $0 -3%
Will Jordan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $10 −$2 -17%
Will Austria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 17 $30 +$8 +27%
Will France finish second in Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Jun 17 $10 −$5 -46%
Will Sweden finish second in Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Jun 17 $5 −$4 -69%
Will Algeria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $10 +$1 +14%
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 17 $10 +$2 +21%
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $20 +$2 +8%
Will Norway advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $20 −$1 -4%
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $10 $0 +5%
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 16 $3 $0 +0%
Will Mexico be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Jun 16 $2 $0 +4%
Will Spain reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 16 $3 $0 +10%
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $10 $0 -4%
Will New Zealand win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $5 −$3 -54%
Will New Zealand advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 16 $13 −$2 -15%
Will New Zealand finish last in Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Gro Jun 16 $10 +$3 +34%
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl Jun 15 $5 +$1 +11%
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 15 $5 $0 +7%
Will Uruguay finish second in Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Jun 15 $5 $0 +5%
Will Cape Verde finish last in Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Grou Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Germany be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Jun 15 $1 $0 -14%
Will England finish second in Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Jun 15 $1 $0 +38%
Will Tunisia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 15 $5 $0 +6%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 9? Jun 08 $1 $0 -43%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 8? Jun 08 $1 +$1 +56%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Curacao advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL Yes 4¢ $25 1h
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 22¢ $2 1h
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 26¢ $37 1h
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $31 1h
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 21¢ $31 1h
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 2h
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 2h
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 2h
Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL No 74¢ $0 3h
Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL No 66¢ $13 5h
Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL No 66¢ $24 5h
Will Curacao advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 3¢ $20 5h
Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 53¢ $30 5h
Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL No 41¢ $4 5h
Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL No 41¢ $20 5h
Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL No 40¢ $14 5h
Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 32¢ $31 5h
Will Ivory Coast win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 48¢ $31 10h
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 45¢ $22 10h
Will Ivory Coast win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 43¢ $3 10h
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 45¢ $11 10h
Will Ivory Coast win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 41¢ $31 10h
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 40¢ $31 10h
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 40¢ $3 10h
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 36¢ $3 10h
Will Paraguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu SELL Yes 74¢ $6 26h
Will Paraguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes 67¢ $5 26h
Will Paraguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu SELL Yes 66¢ $6 26h
Will Paraguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes 57¢ $5 26h
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL No 76¢ $6 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.25 · official $29.25 (match) · 554 history records