Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:42:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
8D 0x8d99…6a92 crypto 62 markets active 2h ago coverage 190d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$411 (-11%) realized −$411 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate31%19W / 43L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$59per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$758
7 days+$502
14 days+$286
30 days+$286
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 43% +$5
other 31% −$212
sports 25% +$374
politics 1% −$17
culture 1% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-16.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -28.2% -35.0% 44% 44% +9.4%
≤30d 18 -36.2% -42.3% 39% 39% +0.3%
≤90d 18 -36.2% -42.3% 39% 39% +0.3%
all 62 -7.9% -16.7% 31% 31% -6.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.7% 31% -6.3%
10% -24.7% 29% -15.2%
15% -32.0% 26% -23.4%
20% -38.6% 23% -30.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -20% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$75 vs −$30 · ×2.49 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

190d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$411
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses19 / 43
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions0
Markets (closed)62 / 62
History coverage190d
Avg bet$59
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 62 Trades
no open positions (35 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 21 $206 +$134 +65%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $641 +$442 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 21 $103 +$93 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 21 $206 +$139 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 21 $204 +$90 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 21 $104 −$67 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 21 $110 −$90 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 21 $104 −$95 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$1 +19%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $461 +$112 +24%
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 2 Morocco? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $15 −$14 -91%
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $110 −$108 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $111 −$110 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $110 −$108 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $111 −$109 -98%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-11? Mar 11 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Mar 05 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Mar 05 $1 +$3 +292%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Mar 05 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Feb 27 $7 +$26 +349%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Feb 27 $21 −$21 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Feb 27 $131 −$111 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Feb 26 $73 +$25 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Feb 26 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Feb 26 $50 −$49 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Feb 26 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Feb 26 $47 +$115 +243%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Feb 26 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Feb 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Warriors vs. Hornets Dec 31 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from December 19 to December 26, 20 Dec 26 $63 −$63 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from December 19 to December 26, 20 Dec 26 $104 −$41 -39%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks Dec 25 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19? Dec 25 $26 −$17 -65%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Aurora Türkiye vs ONIC (BO5) Dec 23 $4 +$2 +51%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 20 Dec 23 $78 +$30 +38%
Will Senegal vs. Botswana end in a draw? Dec 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 20 Dec 23 $20 −$20 -100%
Magic vs. Warriors Dec 23 $64 +$49 +77%
Grizzlies vs. Thunder Dec 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will FC Alverca win on 2025-12-22? Dec 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Angola win on 2025-12-22? Dec 22 $16 −$16 -100%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Aurora Gaming vs ONIC - Game 2 Winner Dec 22 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: LGD Gaming vs Invictus Gaming - Game 1 Winner Dec 22 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: LGD Gaming vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) Dec 22 $21 −$21 -100%
LoL: Oh My God vs JD Gaming (BO3) Dec 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Spotify's top song on Christmas be 'All I Want For Christmas Is Y Dec 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $340 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $103 1h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 96¢ $1,084 1h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 56¢ $641 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $103 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $103 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $103 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $102 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $102 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Down 14¢ $37 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $104 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET SELL Down 10¢ $19 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $110 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET SELL Up 4¢ $9 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $104 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $5 6h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 80¢ $461 2d
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 2d
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 11¢ $15 2d
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 3d
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? BUY Yes 12¢ $6 4d
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? BUY Yes 12¢ $0 4d
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? BUY Yes 12¢ $9 4d
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 41¢ $110 6d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 BUY Over 69¢ $111 6d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 50¢ $110 7d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 30¢ $51 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 136 history records