Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T07:06:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8D 0x8d9a…3678 crypto 105 markets active 0h ago coverage 62d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$578 (-7%) realized −$568 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate48%47W / 50L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$76per market
Trades / day5.7pace
Fees−$49est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$95now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$162
7 days+$162
14 days−$80
30 days−$118
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 43% +$166
other 33% −$367
sports 25% −$196
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)+5.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 +3.6% -6.2% 62% 55% -3.3%
≤30d 80 +21.8% +10.2% 50% 40% -11.4%
≤90d 97 +17.0% +5.9% 48% 40% -14.0%
all 97 +17.0% +5.9% 48% 40% -14.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +5.9% 40% -14.0%
10% -4.3% 33% -22.2%
15% -13.5% 29% -29.8%
20% -22.0% 25% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +30% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$40 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

62d coverage
Net worth$95
Realized−$568
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses47 / 50
Est. fees paid−$49
Open positions1
Markets (closed)97 / 105
History coverage62d
Avg bet$76
Trades / day5.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 97 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Up 55¢ 50¢ $105 $95 −$10 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 27 $67 +$49 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 27 $61 +$9 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 27 $52 −$16 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 27 $31 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 27 $62 +$47 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 27 $67 +$44 +66%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 27 $62 +$49 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 27 $205 +$101 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 27 $180 +$39 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 27 $133 +$47 +35%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $139 −$100 -72%
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 27 $29 −$10 -34%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 27 $3 +$1 +55%
Mohamed Salah: 1+ goals Jun 27 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 27 $5 −$4 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 27 $35 +$6 +16%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Neither team to score first? Jun 27 $15 −$2 -11%
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 0 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 27 $6 +$2 +29%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $357 +$121 +34%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 26 $25 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 26 $16 +$9 +60%
Senegal vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $168 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $160 +$8 +5%
Norway vs. France: 1st Half O/U 1.5 AND Norway vs. France: Both Teams Jun 26 $58 +$85 +145%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 26 $10 +$3 +33%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $380 −$308 -81%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $20 −$20 -98%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Neither team to score first? Jun 16 $33 −$32 -97%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $211 −$207 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $717 −$3 -0%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $127 −$39 -30%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $261 −$9 -3%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $201 −$179 -89%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $87 −$85 -98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $28 +$6 +21%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $17 −$1 -4%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $44 −$2 -5%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Neither team to score first? Jun 15 $36 +$34 +97%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $37 +$122 +334%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $70 −$32 -46%
Cabo Verde to score first vs. Spain? Jun 15 $8 −$3 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $25 +$1 +4%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $13 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $31 +$38 +121%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $79 +$68 +86%
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 15 $7 +$5 +68%
Sweden to score first vs. Tunisia? Jun 15 $25 +$16 +61%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $103 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $116 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $26 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $26 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $70 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $5 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $5 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $25 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $25 14m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29? AND Will United States win on 2026-07- BUY 3¢ $3 1h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? AND Will Croatia win on 2026-0 BUY 3¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET SELL Up 37¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET SELL Up 57¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $109 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $26 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $94.67 · official $115.56 · 370 history records