Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T02:27:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

8D 0x8d9b…8660 other 19 markets active 1h ago coverage 58d

RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ Small sample

! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$1,671 (+20%) realized +$1,627 · open +$44

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +39% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +26% what you keep after slip

Net edge+26%after slip

Net WR81%break-even

Win rate88%14W / 2L

Drawdown13%max

Avg bet$431per market

Trades / day0.8pace

Fees−$14est.

Kalshi-fit53%portable

Net worth$4,304now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$536

7 days+$1,225

14 days+$1,525

30 days+$1,525

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +81%

net ROI/market (all)+26.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	11	+33.5%	+20.8%	82%	82%	+29.2%
≤30d	16	+39.4%	+26.1%	88%	81%	+26.8%
≤90d	16	+39.4%	+26.1%	88%	81%	+26.8%
all	16	+39.4%	+26.1%	88%	81%	+26.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.8 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to15%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+26.1%	81%	+26.8%
10%	+14.1%	69%	+14.6%
15%	+3.0%	62%	+3.5%
20%	-7.1%	38%	-6.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 35% · top 2 46% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +40% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

7% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +39% · $-wt +40% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +31% → late +48% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$134 vs −$173 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×5.41 per $1 lost it wins $5.41

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

58d coverage

Net worth$4,304

Realized+$1,627

Unrealized+$44

Win rate (resolved)88%

Wins / losses14 / 2

Est. fees paid−$14

Open positions3

Markets (closed)16 / 19

History coverage58d

Avg bet$431

Trades / day0.8

Drawdown13%

Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 16 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	11¢	13¢	$2,120	$2,510	+$390 (+18%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	7¢	6¢	$1,961	$1,610	−$351 (-18%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	60¢	62¢	$180	$184	+$4 (+2%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 21	$677	+$92	+14%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5	Jun 21	$219	−$216	-99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$388	+$212	+55%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5	Jun 21	$60	+$40	+67%
Spread: Germany (-1.5)	Jun 20	$304	+$196	+65%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$289	+$211	+73%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 20	$370	+$648	+175%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5	Jun 17	$151	+$49	+32%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5	Jun 16	$135	+$65	+48%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5	Jun 16	$143	+$57	+40%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$131	−$130	-99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$284	+$16	+6%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5	Jun 13	$77	+$123	+158%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 11	$141	+$59	+42%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5	Jun 11	$141	+$59	+42%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 08	$297	+$44	+15%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	60¢	$182	1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	2¢	$717	9h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	2¢	$1	9h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	2¢	$10	9h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	2¢	$31	9h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	2¢	$11	9h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	54¢	$219	9h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5	BUY Under	59¢	$60	26h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	64¢	$388	35h
Spread: Germany (-1.5)	BUY Côte dIvoire	60¢	$304	35h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	57¢	$289	35h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	7¢	$276	2d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	7¢	$276	2d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	3¢	$53	2d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	3¢	$14	2d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	3¢	$50	2d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	3¢	$5	2d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	3¢	$770	2d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	3¢	$97	2d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	3¢	$12	2d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	3¢	$3	2d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	3¢	$14	2d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	7¢	$1,033	2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	75¢	$151	4d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	11¢	$2,177	5d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	67¢	$135	6d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	65¢	$131	6d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	71¢	$11	6d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	71¢	$132	6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	94¢	$284	7d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,304.50 · official $4,304.50 (match) · 116 history records