Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:23:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
8D 0x8d9c…cf78 sports 193 markets active 1h ago coverage 228d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,800 (+10%) realized +$1,902 · open −$102
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate41%76W / 111L
Drawdown78%max
Avg bet$90per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$275est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$895now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$79
7 days+$648
14 days+$227
30 days+$712
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% +$508
other 15% +$146
world 0% +$1
crypto 0% +$12
economics 0% +$15
tech 0% −$5
politics 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 69 +11.1% +0.5% 33% 33% -1.6%
≤30d 137 -1.3% -10.7% 38% 38% -4.9%
≤90d 137 -1.3% -10.7% 38% 38% -4.9%
all 187 -4.1% -13.3% 41% 40% -5.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.3% 40% -5.3%
10% -21.6% 36% -14.3%
15% -29.1% 31% -22.6%
20% -36.1% 27% -30.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$119 vs −$74 · ×1.6 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

228d coverage
Net worth$895
Realized+$1,902
Unrealized−$102
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses76 / 111
Est. fees paid−$275
Open positions6
Markets (closed)187 / 193
History coverage228d
Avg bet$90
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown78%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 187 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
ITF Klosters: Alexandre Aubriot vs Sandro Kopp Alexandre Aubriot 23¢ 40¢ $430 $764 +$334 (+78%)
Will Germany reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 39¢ 40¢ $100 $103 +$3 (+3%)
ITF Klosters: Sophie Luescher vs Emily Seibold Sophie Luescher 13¢ 3¢ $50 $11 −$39 (-78%)
ITF Ystad: Valentina Ivanov vs Isabel Skoog Isabel Skoog 25¢ 0¢ $402 $7 −$395 (-98%)
Will MicroStrategy announce bankruptcy before 2027? Yes 15¢ 8¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-50%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Chicago White Sox 48¢ 46¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ITF Klosters: Tina Manescu vs Adrienn Nagy Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
ITF Haskovo: Iva Ivanova vs Martha Matoula Jun 18 $52 −$52 -100%
ITF Klosters: Eva Marie Voracek vs Petra Sedlackova Jun 18 $164 −$164 -100%
ITF Ystad: Matylda Burylo vs Valentina Steiner Jun 18 $103 −$103 -100%
ITF Zhengzhou: Qiu Yu Ye vs Yufei Ren Jun 18 $132 −$132 -100%
ITF Zhengzhou: Chenting Zhu vs Jia-Jing Lu Jun 18 $51 +$78 +152%
ITF Irvine: Alexander Guajardo vs Karl Kazuma Lee Jun 18 $77 −$77 -100%
ITF Irvine: Tia Messerli vs Monika Ekstrand Jun 18 $103 −$103 -100%
ITF Irvine: Yulia Zhytelna vs Midori Castillo Meza Jun 18 $107 −$107 -100%
ITF Irvine: Camille Allegre vs Yilin Chen Jun 18 $144 −$144 -100%
ITF Irvine: Kenta Miyoshi vs Lambert Ruland Jun 17 $106 −$106 -100%
ITF Irvine: William Kleege vs Spencer Johnson Jun 17 $62 −$62 -100%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $52 +$103 +197%
Asuncion 2: Juan Estevez vs Hernan Casanova Jun 17 $5 +$5 +114%
ITF Tauste: Ru Xi Wu vs Yasmine Mansouri Jun 17 $51 +$74 +146%
ITF Tulsa: Marko Miladinovic vs Maximus Dussault Jun 17 $204 +$322 +158%
ITF Saarlouis: Kaspar Mathes vs Marcel Zielinski Jun 17 $72 −$72 -100%
ITF Dinard: Marie Vogt vs Kaat Coppez Jun 17 $103 −$103 -100%
ITF Dinard: Tilwith Di Girolami vs Chrystal Lopez Jun 17 $103 −$103 -100%
Brescia: Fiona Ferro vs Ekaterine Gorgodze Jun 17 $62 +$367 +596%
ITF Monastir: Isabella De Micco Padula vs Elena Jamshidi Jun 17 $9 +$42 +442%
ITF Sapporo: Eunchae Kim vs Sae Noguchi Jun 17 $102 −$102 -100%
ITF Dinard: Julie Myatovic vs Margaux Maquet Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
ITF Saarlouis: Yannik Kelm vs Piet Steveker Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
ITF Taipei: Erika Sema vs Eunhye Lee Jun 17 $153 +$296 +194%
ITF Sapporo: Riyo Yoshida vs Seo Yun Choi Jun 17 $102 −$102 -100%
ITF Tulsa: Alex Rybakov vs Bruno Kuzuhara Jun 17 $184 +$716 +388%
Asuncion 2: Samuel Heredia vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi Jun 17 $174 −$174 -100%
ITF Irvine: Alina Shcherbinina vs Nanari Katsumi Jun 17 $47 −$47 -100%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 16 $102 −$102 -100%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $153 +$222 +146%
Royan: Eliakim Coulibaly vs Felix Balshaw Jun 16 $205 −$205 -100%
Poznan: Maks Kasnikowski vs Lorenzo Giustino Jun 16 $101 −$101 -100%
Dublin: Bernard Tomic vs Conor Gannon Jun 16 $35 +$125 +358%
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt Jun 16 $154 −$154 -100%
ITF Klosters: Sophie Luescher vs Ashley Lahey Jun 16 $103 +$731 +712%
ITF Tauste: Tiphanie Lemaitre vs Zoziya Kardava Jun 15 $51 −$51 -100%
Brescia: Sarah Rakotomanga vs Yuliana Lizarazo Jun 15 $36 −$36 -100%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $51 −$51 -100%
Figueira Da Foz: Susan Bandecchi vs Vera Zvonareva Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $376 −$376 -100%
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 15 $82 −$82 -100%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Zachary Svajda Jun 15 $225 −$225 -100%
HSBC Championships: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Harry Wendelken Jun 15 $128 −$128 -100%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Tessa Brockmann vs Alycia Pa Jun 15 $51 −$51 -100%
ITF Cuiaba: Antonia Rivera vs Carolina Alves Jun 15 $173 −$173 -100%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 +$41 +81%
Modena: Katarzyna Kawa vs Lucia Bronzetti Jun 14 $153 +$211 +138%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $102 +$150 +148%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ITF Klosters: Alexandre Aubriot vs Sandro Kopp BUY Alexandre Aubriot 19¢ $20 38m
ITF Klosters: Alexandre Aubriot vs Sandro Kopp BUY Alexandre Aubriot 20¢ $20 39m
ITF Klosters: Alexandre Aubriot vs Sandro Kopp BUY Alexandre Aubriot 23¢ $51 39m
ITF Klosters: Alexandre Aubriot vs Sandro Kopp BUY Alexandre Aubriot 28¢ $51 40m
ITF Klosters: Alexandre Aubriot vs Sandro Kopp BUY Alexandre Aubriot 28¢ $51 41m
ITF Klosters: Alexandre Aubriot vs Sandro Kopp BUY Alexandre Aubriot 27¢ $51 41m
ITF Klosters: Alexandre Aubriot vs Sandro Kopp BUY Alexandre Aubriot 22¢ $25 49m
ITF Klosters: Alexandre Aubriot vs Sandro Kopp BUY Alexandre Aubriot 20¢ $20 1h
ITF Klosters: Sophie Luescher vs Emily Seibold BUY Sophie Luescher 13¢ $51 1h
ITF Klosters: Alexandre Aubriot vs Sandro Kopp BUY Alexandre Aubriot 20¢ $102 1h
ITF Klosters: Alexandre Aubriot vs Sandro Kopp BUY Alexandre Aubriot 22¢ $46 1h
ITF Ystad: Matylda Burylo vs Valentina Steiner BUY Matylda Burylo 8¢ $51 3h
ITF Ystad: Matylda Burylo vs Valentina Steiner BUY Matylda Burylo 10¢ $51 3h
ITF Ystad: Valentina Ivanov vs Isabel Skoog BUY Isabel Skoog 20¢ $51 3h
ITF Ystad: Valentina Ivanov vs Isabel Skoog BUY Isabel Skoog 26¢ $51 3h
ITF Ystad: Valentina Ivanov vs Isabel Skoog BUY Isabel Skoog 30¢ $143 3h
ITF Ystad: Valentina Ivanov vs Isabel Skoog BUY Isabel Skoog 23¢ $102 3h
ITF Ystad: Valentina Ivanov vs Isabel Skoog BUY Isabel Skoog 25¢ $51 3h
ITF Ystad: Valentina Ivanov vs Isabel Skoog BUY Isabel Skoog 29¢ $10 3h
ITF Ystad: Valentina Ivanov vs Isabel Skoog BUY Isabel Skoog 17¢ $1 3h
ITF Ystad: Valentina Ivanov vs Isabel Skoog BUY Isabel Skoog 17¢ $1 3h
ITF Klosters: Eva Marie Voracek vs Petra Sedlackova BUY Petra Sedlackova 23¢ $10 4h
ITF Klosters: Eva Marie Voracek vs Petra Sedlackova BUY Petra Sedlackova 25¢ $51 4h
ITF Klosters: Eva Marie Voracek vs Petra Sedlackova BUY Petra Sedlackova 24¢ $102 4h
ITF Haskovo: Iva Ivanova vs Martha Matoula BUY Iva Ivanova 29¢ $1 4h
ITF Haskovo: Iva Ivanova vs Martha Matoula BUY Iva Ivanova 30¢ $26 5h
ITF Haskovo: Iva Ivanova vs Martha Matoula BUY Iva Ivanova 31¢ $26 5h
ITF Klosters: Tina Manescu vs Adrienn Nagy BUY Tina Manescu 10¢ $5 5h
ITF Klosters: Tina Manescu vs Adrienn Nagy BUY Tina Manescu 7¢ $5 5h
ITF Zhengzhou: Qiu Yu Ye vs Yufei Ren BUY Qiu Yu Ye 11¢ $103 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $894.72 · official $754.76 · 547 history records