Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T19:00:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8D 0x8da0…5fe0 other 44 markets active 0h ago coverage 122d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$82 (-6%) realized −$99 · open +$17
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate44%18W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$223now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days+$32
14 days−$214
30 days−$328
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 60% +$7
sports 29% +$10
tech 9% −$130
crypto 1% −$10
world 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -24.1% -31.3% 33% 33% +2.4%
≤30d 21 -40.7% -46.4% 29% 29% -50.0%
≤90d 34 -10.8% -19.3% 41% 38% -24.5%
all 41 -1.9% -11.3% 44% 41% -19.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 41% -19.9%
10% -19.8% 39% -27.6%
15% -27.5% 32% -34.6%
20% -34.6% 32% -41.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +39% → late -41% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$28 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

122d coverage
Net worth$223
Realized−$99
Unrealized+$17
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses18 / 23
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions3
Markets (closed)41 / 44
History coverage122d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $150 $173 +$23 (+15%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 Under 41¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $103 +$67 +65%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $15 −$15 -100%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $26 −$26 -100%
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 22 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $9 +$29 +318%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $20 +$6 +32%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $20 +$20 +96%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $101 −$101 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $22 +$23 +104%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $31 −$31 -100%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $STAR? Jun 12 $130 −$130 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 04 $61 −$61 -100%
Enhanced Games: Men’s 100m Sprint World Record Broken? May 25 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Sunderland AFC vs. Chelsea FC end in a draw? May 24 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Tottenham be relegated from the English Premier League after the May 24 $65 +$19 +30%
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 17 $35 +$12 +35%
Will Chelsea FC vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw? May 17 $92 −$92 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $20 +$18 +91%
Will Paris Saint-Germain (PSG) reach the UEFA Champions League final? May 07 $15 +$15 +101%
Will FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC end in a draw? May 07 $20 +$44 +216%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $15 −$1 -8%
Will Manchester United FC vs. Liverpool FC end in a draw? May 03 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? Apr 30 $16 +$38 +236%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? Apr 30 $6 −$6 -100%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 29 $30 +$2 +6%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 27 $99 +$105 +105%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $25 +$26 +105%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-03-14? Mar 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-03-11? Mar 11 $15 +$16 +108%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-03-01? Mar 02 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Arsenal FC vs. Chelsea FC end in a draw? Mar 02 $10 −$10 -100%
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? Feb 26 $10 +$2 +15%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-02-22? Feb 22 $6 +$14 +233%
Will Aston Villa FC vs. Leeds United FC end in a draw? Feb 21 $18 +$42 +233%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 41¢ $7 18m
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 25¢ $6 31m
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 40¢ $10 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 15¢ $170 1h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 51¢ $15 14h
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 17¢ $9 46h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 50¢ $26 47h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 50¢ $10 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $39 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 19¢ $4 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 2d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 78¢ $27 2d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 2d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 58¢ $20 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 6¢ $10 3d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $4 5d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 50¢ $20 5d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 BUY Over 36¢ $7 8d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 84¢ $101 8d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $22 8d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 10d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $31 10d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $31 10d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $21 10d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $21 10d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 24¢ $31 11d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $41 12d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 38¢ $20 24d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 39¢ $41 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $223.17 · official $223.24 (match) · 200 history records