Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T02:29:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8D 0x8da1…6324 crypto 27 markets active 0h ago coverage 188d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$31 (+2%) realized +$36 · open −$5
Gross ROI / mkt -37% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate35%9W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$59per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$145now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$47
7 days+$89
14 days+$89
30 days+$89
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 57% −$22
other 30% +$72
crypto 13% −$88
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-42.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -13.1% -21.4% 46% 46% -2.7%
≤30d 13 -13.1% -21.4% 46% 46% -2.7%
≤90d 13 -13.1% -21.4% 46% 46% -2.7%
all 26 -36.8% -42.9% 35% 23% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -42.9% 23% -11.6%
10% -48.3% 19% -20.0%
15% -53.3% 12% -27.8%
20% -57.9% 12% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 78% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -37% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -61% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$49 vs −$28 · ×1.76 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

188d coverage
Net worth$145
Realized+$36
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses9 / 17
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions1
Markets (closed)26 / 27
History coverage188d
Avg bet$59
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Yes 45¢ 44¢ $150 $145 −$5 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 27 $90 +$26 +29%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $202 +$136 +67%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $10 −$2 -22%
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 27 $234 −$203 -87%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $7 −$5 -64%
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $295 +$207 +70%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $62 −$62 -100%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $81 +$23 +29%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $66 +$15 +22%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $15 −$7 -46%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $35 −$20 -57%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $35 +$31 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 29, 9PM ET Jan 30 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 20, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jan 20 $3 −$3 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 20, 4AM ET Jan 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 20, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jan 20 $4 −$2 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 20, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jan 20 $6 −$1 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down on January 18? Jan 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jan 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down on January 16? Jan 16 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 5AM ET Jan 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will Gold close between $4000 and $4100 at the end of 2025? Dec 30 $49 −$33 -68%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,400 on December 23? Dec 21 $41 −$41 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 21, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Dec 21 $50 −$8 -17%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on December 21? Dec 21 $48 +$1 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $152 25m
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $116 26m
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 100¢ $339 26m
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 77¢ $90 37m
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 22¢ $8 49m
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes $31 49m
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes $3 1h
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 22¢ $31 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 16¢ $7 2h
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $203 5h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 59¢ $202 5h
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $502 6h
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $295 7h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 61¢ $62 2d
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $51 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 98¢ $104 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $81 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $81 2d
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? SELL Yes 24¢ $8 2d
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 43¢ $15 2d
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 24¢ $15 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 81¢ $66 2d
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $67 2d
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $35 2d
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $35 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 29, 9PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $10 148d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 20, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $3 157d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 20, 4AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 157d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 20, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET SELL Up 92¢ $3 157d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $145.00 · official $145.00 (match) · 54 history records