Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T23:06:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
8D 0x8da1…a0d3 other 78 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care Fading edge⚠ High turnover
! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$217 (+33%) realized +$187 · open +$30
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +48% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +14% what you keep after slip
Net edge+14%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate24%12W / 38L
Drawdown41%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day27.4pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit29%portable
Net worth$158now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 78% +$270
sports 15% +$21
crypto 4% +$5
world 3% +$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)+34.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 +48.4% +34.3% 24% 24% +53.0%
≤30d 50 +48.4% +34.3% 24% 24% +53.0%
≤90d 50 +48.4% +34.3% 24% 24% +53.0%
all 50 +48.4% +34.3% 24% 24% +53.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +34.3% 24% +53.0%
10% ← realistic here +21.4% 22% +38.4%
15% +9.7% 22% +25.0%
20% -1.0% 20% +12.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +69% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +48% · $-wt +69% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +110% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$47 vs −$7 · ×6.34 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.0 per $1 lost it wins $2.0
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$158
Realized+$187
Unrealized+$30
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses12 / 38
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions6
Markets (closed)50 / 78
History coverage4d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day27.4
Drawdown41%
Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Morocco? Yes 13¢ 22¢ $32 $54 +$22 (+69%)
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Morocco? Yes 16¢ 22¢ $25 $35 +$10 (+41%)
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 2 Morocco? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $28 $33 +$5 (+18%)
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 3 Morocco? Yes 6¢ 10¢ $14 $23 +$9 (+62%)
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 3 Morocco? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $14 $13 −$1 (-7%)
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 0 Morocco? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 19 $8 −$8 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 1 Qatar? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $12 −$12 -100%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $18 −$18 -100%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $18 −$18 -100%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $12 −$12 -100%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $13 −$13 -100%
Exact Score: United States 0 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $14 −$14 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 0 Qatar? Jun 19 $8 −$8 -100%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 19 $8 −$8 -100%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Qatar? Jun 19 $13 −$13 -100%
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 3 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Qatar? Jun 19 $13 −$13 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Qatar? Jun 19 $21 −$21 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 2 Qatar? Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $23 +$146 +649%
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $20 +$202 +1034%
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $5 +$10 +186%
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $5 −$1 -23%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 2 Jordan? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $8 +$97 +1228%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $3 $0 -14%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 0 Egypt? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 Egypt? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 0 Egypt? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Kylian Mbappé: 3+ goals Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: France 3 - 2 Senegal? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $6 +$60 +980%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $3 +$3 +114%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? AND Will IR Iran vs. New Jun 16 $1 +$10 +1300%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? AND Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand Jun 16 $1 +$2 +289%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? AND Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-1 Jun 16 $10 +$14 +140%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? AND Will New Zealand win Jun 16 $2 +$1 +72%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $15 +$7 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$5 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 3 Morocco? BUY Yes 6¢ $14 1h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 0 Morocco? BUY Yes 9¢ $15 1h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes 13¢ $7 1h
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 3 Morocco? BUY Yes 6¢ $14 1h
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes 11¢ $18 1h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 16¢ $26 1h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? AND BUY 25¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia? SELL Yes 100¢ $169 1h
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Australia? BUY Yes 13¢ $12 8h
Exact Score: United States 0 - 0 Australia? BUY Yes 7¢ $6 8h
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Australia? BUY Yes 7¢ $7 8h
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 7¢ $7 8h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia? BUY Yes 13¢ $23 8h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 12¢ $18 8h
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 11¢ $12 13h
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Australia? BUY Yes 14¢ $6 13h
Exact Score: United States 0 - 0 Australia? BUY Yes 7¢ $8 13h
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Australia? BUY Yes 7¢ $6 13h
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 13h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 BUY 15¢ $8 13h
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 2 Qatar? BUY Yes 2¢ $4 25h
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Qatar? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 25h
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 12¢ $13 25h
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 15¢ $21 25h
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Qatar? BUY Yes 10¢ $8 25h
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 12¢ $8 25h
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 1 Qatar? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $158.18 · official $175.02 · 153 history records