Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:43:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8D 0x8da3…992c other 4 markets active 6d ago coverage 658d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$13,681 (-80%) realized −$13,588 · open −$93
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -48% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -57% what you keep after slip
Net edge-57%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%1W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4,253per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Fees−$148est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$64now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 658d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 59% −$9,837
other 40% −$3,752
world 1% −$93
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-52.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
all 3 -48.0% -52.9% 33% 33% -83.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -52.9% 33% -83.1%
10% ← realistic here -57.4% 33% -84.7%
15% -61.5% 33% -86.2%
20% -65.3% 33% -87.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -100% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -48% · $-wt -81% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,122 vs −$7,355 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

658d coverage
Net worth$64
Realized−$13,588
Unrealized−$93
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses1 / 2
Est. fees paid−$148
Open positions1
Markets (closed)3 / 4
History coverage658d
Avg bet$4,253
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $157 $64 −$93 (-59%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 11 $9,984 −$9,837 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $4,873 −$4,873 -100%
Speed/Kai beat hardcore Minecraft by Friday? Aug 22 $1,999 +$1,122 +56%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 50¢ $9,984 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY Yes 1¢ $157 6d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 23¢ $4,510 17d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 17d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 22¢ $0 17d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 22¢ $105 17d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 22¢ $0 17d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 17d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 22¢ $20 17d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 17d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 22¢ $234 17d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 17d
Speed/Kai beat hardcore Minecraft by Friday? BUY Yes 64¢ $1,999 664d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $63.95 · official $63.95 (match) · 16 history records