Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T17:20:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
8D 0x8da6…e8f7 sports 97 markets active 2h ago coverage 18d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$5 (+0%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate100%94W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day5.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$150now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$2
14 days+$4
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 55% +$3
other 26% +$1
tech 9% $0
crypto 5% $0
finance 3% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 94 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 94 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 94 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs — no data
Profit factor
no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$150
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses94 / 0
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)94 / 97
History coverage18d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day5.5
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 94 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Haiti win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Namibia T20 Tri-Series: Namibia vs Nigeria Namibia 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 12.5 Jun 23 $50 $0 +0%
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5) Jun 23 $50 $0 +0%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $19 $0 +0%
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 22 $50 $0 +0%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 22 $50 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 2 Cabo Verde? Jun 22 $50 $0 +0%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 21 $50 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Phantom - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $50 $0 +0%
UD Almería vs. Málaga CF: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5 Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Marcos Giron vs Charles Broom Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
Set 2 Winner: Sabalenka vs Pegula Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 11.5 Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
Will Rory McIlroy lead the 2026 U.S. Open following the second round? Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $50 $0 +0%
Shelton vs. Fritz: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 19 $50 $0 +0%
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $50 $0 +0%
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $50 $0 +0%
Will South Africa win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $50 $0 +0%
Valorant: YFP Gaming vs NRG Academy - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $50 $0 +0%
Spread: Canada (-2.5) Jun 19 $50 $0 +0%
Granit Xhaka: 1+ goals Jun 18 $50 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 18 $100 $0 +0%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Portugal to win the second half? Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 2 DR Congo? Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Will José Sá be in Portugal's Starting 11? Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Royan: Kilian Feldbausch vs Svyatoslav Gulin Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Fortaleza EC 3 - 0 América FC? Jun 17 $4 $0 +0%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Nikkei 225 (NIK) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 15 $10 $0 +0%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $50 $0 +0%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 9-15? Jun 15 $50 $0 +0%
Will Eric Robinson lead the 2026 Stanley Cup Finals in goals? Jun 15 $50 $0 +0%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $50 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 2 - 0 Ecuador? Jun 15 $50 $0 +0%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $50 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Namibia T20 Tri-Series: Namibia vs Nigeria BUY Namibia 100¢ $50 1h
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5) BUY Baltimore Orioles 100¢ $50 13h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 12.5 BUY Under 100¢ $50 13h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 100¢ $19 21h
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 2 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 41h
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 100¢ $50 41h
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 41h
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 46h
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Phantom - Map 1 Winner BUY FOKUS 100¢ $50 2d
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals BUY No 100¢ $50 2d
UD Almería vs. Málaga CF: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 100¢ $50 2d
Will Haiti win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $50 2d
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 100¢ $50 2d
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Marcos Giron vs Charles Broom BUY Marcos Giron 100¢ $50 2d
Set 2 Winner: Sabalenka vs Pegula BUY Sabalenka 100¢ $50 3d
Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $50 3d
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 100¢ $50 3d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 11.5 BUY Under 100¢ $50 3d
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 100¢ $50 3d
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) BUY New York Yankees 100¢ $50 3d
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 100¢ $50 3d
Will Rory McIlroy lead the 2026 U.S. Open following the second round? BUY No 100¢ $50 3d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner BUY Paper Rex 100¢ $50 4d
Shelton vs. Fritz: Match O/U 23.5 BUY Over 100¢ $50 4d
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 4d
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $50 4d
Will South Africa win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $50 4d
Spread: Canada (-2.5) BUY Canada 100¢ $50 4d
Valorant: YFP Gaming vs NRG Academy - Map 1 Winner BUY YFP Gaming 100¢ $50 4d
Granit Xhaka: 1+ goals BUY Yes 100¢ $50 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $149.93 · official $149.93 (match) · 193 history records