Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T18:19:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
8D 0x8dad…c5a2 crypto 334 markets active 3d ago coverage 101d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$730 (+4%) realized +$730 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate51%170W / 163L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$58per market
Trades / day7.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$82
14 days+$225
30 days+$215
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$116
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -31.8% -38.3% 17% 17% -31.1%
≤30d 91 -0.2% -9.7% 55% 53% -4.8%
≤90d 177 +7.0% -3.2% 51% 47% -7.3%
all 333 +0.8% -8.8% 51% 49% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 49% -9.5%
10% -17.6% 48% -18.2%
15% -25.5% 44% -26.1%
20% -32.8% 39% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$44 vs −$47 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

101d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$730
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses170 / 163
Open positions0
Markets (closed)333 / 334
History coverage101d
Avg bet$58
Trades / day7.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 333 Trades
no open positions (129 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 23 $86 −$82 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 23 $41 −$11 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 23 $285 −$52 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 23 $73 +$69 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 23 $29 −$4 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 16 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 16 $39 −$38 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 16 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 16 $49 +$10 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 16 $21 +$12 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 16 $11 +$23 +216%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 16 $14 +$4 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 16 $26 +$7 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 16 $31 +$20 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $21 +$14 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 16 $21 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 16 $31 +$19 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $98 −$94 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 16 $211 −$200 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $86 +$223 +258%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $42 +$32 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 16 $16 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 15 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 15 $41 +$23 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$11 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $31 +$24 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 15 $26 +$16 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $26 +$19 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $20 +$5 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 15 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 15 $26 +$6 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $42 −$40 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 15 $16 +$12 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 15 $16 +$12 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$9 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 15 $130 −$50 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 15 $41 −$40 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$8 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$6 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $27 +$12 +44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $76 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET SELL Up 40¢ $30 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $41 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $90 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $31 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET SELL Down 68¢ $218 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $101 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $62 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Down 93¢ $142 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $52 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $21 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET SELL Down 45¢ $25 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $8 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $21 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $39 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $31 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET SELL Up 22¢ $11 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $11 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET SELL Down 79¢ $48 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $10 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET SELL Down 96¢ $32 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $39 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $21 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET SELL Down 81¢ $33 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $11 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET SELL Down 86¢ $19 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $14 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET SELL Down 72¢ $15 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 758 history records