Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T08:08:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

8D
0x8dae…125c
crypto · 309 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$5,794 -9%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$6,228 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$474
Realized−$6,228
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses140 / 164
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$355
Open positions5
Markets (closed)304 / 309
History coverage132d
Avg bet$198
Trades / day19.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%
Chart Positions 5 History 304 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$394
7 days+$314
14 days+$314
30 days+$314
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? No 53¢ 52¢ $159 $158 −$2 (-1%)
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Gen.G 75¢ 78¢ $150 $157 +$7 (+5%)
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Bilibili Gaming 69¢ 68¢ $138 $135 −$3 (-2%)
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Katerina Siniakova vs Yue Yuan Yue Yuan 14¢ 12¢ $14 $12 −$2 (-11%)
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $14 $12 −$2 (-17%)
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $51 $0 −$51 (-100%)
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner MODUS 45¢ 0¢ $585 $0 −$585 (-100%)
Dota 2: GamerLegion vs Heroic - Game 2 Winner GamerLegion 51¢ 0¢ $857 $0 −$857 (-100%)
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Kansas City Royals 29¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Down 17¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Lyon: Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo vs Luca Van Assche Luca Van Assche 43¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $211 +$257 +122%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $175 −$138 -79%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $1,284 −$746 -58%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $33 −$19 -58%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 14 $102 +$20 +20%
Spread: Dallas Wings (-5.5) Jun 14 $95 −$54 -57%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $155 +$45 +29%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $316 +$383 +121%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $9 −$6 -66%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $120 +$519 +432%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $3 −$2 -64%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $70 −$4 -6%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $27 +$6 +22%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $5 +$45 +909%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $12 +$88 +732%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $64 −$15 -24%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $14 $0 +1%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $81 −$53 -66%
Libema Open: Panna Udvardy vs Daria Snigur Jun 11 $14 $0 +1%
Lyon: Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo vs Luca Van Assche Jun 10 $11 −$11 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $12 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Apr 22 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Apr 22 $56 −$56 -100%
Dota 2: Satan666 vs Ivory (BO3) - EPL World Series Southeast Asia Play Apr 22 $97 −$97 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Apr 22 $14 −$13 -95%
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner Apr 22 $585 −$585 -100%
Dota 2: InterActive Philippines vs Carstensz (BO3) - EPL World Series Apr 22 $393 +$248 +63%
Dota 2: GamerLegion vs Heroic - Game 2 Winner Apr 22 $870 −$857 -98%
Dota 2: GamerLegion vs Heroic - Game 1 Winner Apr 22 $960 −$955 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Apr 22 $48 −$17 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Apr 22 $113 +$69 +61%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs GamerLegion - Game 1 Winner Apr 22 $26 −$26 -100%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs South America Rejects - Game 1 Winner Apr 22 $235 −$235 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs GamerLegion (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage Apr 22 $195 −$195 -100%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage Apr 22 $883 −$81 -9%
Rockets vs. Lakers Apr 22 $2,449 −$426 -17%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs South America Rejects (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Grou Apr 21 $540 +$190 +35%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs MOUZ - Game 1 Winner Apr 21 $180 +$120 +66%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 Winner Apr 21 $201 +$199 +99%
Dota 2: Aurora vs PARIVISION (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage Apr 21 $360 +$81 +22%
Dota 2: Ivory vs WinteR SquadronS (BO3) - EPL World Series Southeast A Apr 21 $37 −$36 -99%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs South America Rejects (BO3) - PGL Wallachia G Apr 21 $618 −$188 -30%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Apr 21 $332 −$51 -15%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage Apr 20 $956 +$1,438 +150%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Falcons - Game 1 Winner Apr 20 $1,400 −$1,400 -100%
Dota 2: Nemiga Gaming vs 1win (BO3) - DreamLeague Division 2 Group A Apr 20 $314 +$143 +46%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs South America Rejects - Game 1 Winner Apr 20 $445 +$165 +37%
Dota 2: Heroic vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage Apr 20 $147 −$88 -60%
Dota 2: Heroic vs Virtus.pro - Game 1 Winner Apr 20 $1,216 +$178 +15%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner Apr 20 $1,348 −$1,218 -90%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 49% −$4,369
crypto 43% −$2,510
other 8% +$652
finance 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 75¢ $150 36m
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Katerina Siniakova vs Yue Yu BUY Yue Yuan 14¢ $14 49m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 53¢ $161 57m
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 69¢ $139 57m
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 100¢ $468 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 46¢ $37 3h
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics SELL Colorado Rockies 11¢ $37 3h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 44¢ $174 4h
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Colorado Rockies 50¢ $26 4h
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Colorado Rockies 50¢ $1 4h
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Colorado Rockies 50¢ $148 4h
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 100¢ $340 4h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 90¢ $307 4h
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Spurs 15¢ $6 4h
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Spurs 15¢ $4 4h
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Spurs 15¢ $17 4h
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Spurs 16¢ $120 4h
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Spurs 15¢ $2 4h
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Spurs 15¢ $30 4h
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Spurs 15¢ $18 4h
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? SELL Yes 7¢ $14 5h
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $33 5h
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) SELL Spurs 61¢ $122 5h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 79¢ $790 6h
Spread: Dallas Wings (-5.5) SELL Dallas Wings 21¢ $41 7h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 61¢ $62 7h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 60¢ $60 7h
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) BUY Spurs 50¢ $102 7h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $200 7h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL No 100¢ $699 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-16.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +80.7% +63.5% 48% 38% +0.9%
≤30d 21 +80.7% +63.5% 48% 38% +0.9%
≤90d 195 -1.2% -10.6% 50% 44% -18.7%
all 304 -8.2% -16.9% 46% 42% -18.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover19.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.9% 42% -18.8%
10% -24.9% 34% -26.6%
15% -32.1% 25% -33.7%
20% -38.8% 20% -40.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $473.78 · official $473.78 (match) · 2717 history records