Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:15:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
8D 0x8daf…ce0a crypto 413 markets active 1d ago coverage 192d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1,599 (-3%) realized −$1,599 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate79%326W / 85L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$120per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$26now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 78% +$130
other 13% −$1,554
finance 2% −$52
sports 2% +$30
politics 2% −$27
tech 1% −$62
world 1% −$34
culture 0% −$122
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +0.0% -9.5% 67% 44% -8.4%
≤30d 13 +8.7% -1.7% 77% 54% -4.2%
≤90d 16 +1.0% -8.6% 75% 44% -5.5%
all 411 -6.3% -15.3% 79% 23% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.3% 23% -11.8%
10% -23.4% 10% -20.3%
15% -30.8% 4% -28.0%
20% -37.6% 2% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
71% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$54 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

192d coverage
Net worth$26
Realized−$1,599
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses326 / 85
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)411 / 413
History coverage192d
Avg bet$120
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 411 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by June 30, 2026? No 92¢ 95¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+4%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 43 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $27 +$12 +44%
Will Juanma Moreno be the next President of Andalusia following the re Jun 16 $10 $0 -4%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$3 +50%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $14 −$9 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +1%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $9 +$5 +55%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 +$1 +14%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 11 $3 $0 +3%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 31 $3 +$1 +22%
Will Cádiz CF win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $5 +$3 +65%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $4 +$1 +19%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 19 $8 +$1 +6%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-05-03? May 04 $7 $0 +0%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-03? May 04 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET May 03 $1 −$1 -96%
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2026-02-14? Feb 14 $138 −$138 -100%
Michigan State Spartans vs. Wisconsin Badgers Feb 14 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Feb 14 $10 $0 +1%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-02-12? Feb 13 $127 +$10 +8%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-02-11? Feb 12 $109 +$18 +17%
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-02-11? Feb 11 $9 $0 +2%
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by March 31? Feb 11 $978 −$649 -66%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 11, 11AM ET Feb 11 $9 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 11, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Feb 11 $8 $0 +2%
Will Deportivo Táchira FC win on 2026-02-10? Feb 11 $2 +$1 +67%
Will Modena FC 2018 win on 2026-02-10? Feb 11 $4 +$1 +25%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-02-10? Feb 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Navy Midshipmen vs. Bucknell Bison Feb 10 $8 $0 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 9, 2PM ET Feb 09 $3 $0 +1%
Seahawks vs. Patriots Feb 09 $19 +$9 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down on February 6? Feb 06 $34 −$34 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 6, 3AM ET Feb 06 $230 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 6PM ET Feb 06 $12 +$3 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 7PM ET Feb 06 $50 −$50 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 5, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Feb 05 $271 +$6 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 3PM ET Feb 05 $271 +$1 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 5, 2PM ET Feb 05 $266 +$5 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down on February 5? Feb 05 $13 +$4 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down on February 5? Feb 05 $20 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 1PM ET Feb 05 $200 −$130 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 12PM ET Feb 05 $349 +$10 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 11AM ET Feb 05 $369 +$31 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Feb 05 $316 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 7AM ET Feb 05 $100 +$12 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 5, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Feb 05 $298 +$6 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Feb 05 $289 +$9 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Feb 05 $10 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 7PM ET Feb 05 $10 −$4 -40%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 4, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Feb 04 $321 +$3 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $10 32h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $10 32h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $10 2d
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by June 30, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $10 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $10 2d
Will Juanma Moreno be the next President of Andalusia following the re SELL Yes 95¢ $10 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $7 2d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 66¢ $5 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 33¢ $5 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 79¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $3 4d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 90¢ $10 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $9 4d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet SELL Yes 99¢ $3 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 87¢ $5 7d
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by June 30, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $25 20d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 97¢ $5 24d
Will Cádiz CF win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 60¢ $5 25d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? BUY No 94¢ $8 45d
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-05-03? BUY Yes 100¢ $7 45d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-03? BUY Yes 97¢ $10 45d
Will Juanma Moreno be the next President of Andalusia following the re BUY Yes 98¢ $10 45d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY Yes 81¢ $3 45d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 81¢ $4 45d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 96¢ $3 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 46d
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2026-02-14? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 124d
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2026-02-14? BUY Yes 88¢ $128 124d
Michigan State Spartans vs. Wisconsin Badgers BUY Wisconsin Badgers 97¢ $10 124d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 125d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.75 · official $25.75 (match) · 990 history records