Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T00:03:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8D 0x8db0…5b69 sports 351 markets active 1h ago coverage 29d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$439 (-6%) realized −$404 · open −$35
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate47%160W / 178L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day37.3pace
Fees−$146est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$125now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$18
7 days−$15
14 days−$109
30 days−$594
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 88% −$784
other 11% +$146
crypto 0% +$12
world 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-6.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 54 -2.5% -11.8% 52% 41% -10.6%
≤30d 338 +3.4% -6.5% 47% 41% -16.7%
≤90d 338 +3.4% -6.5% 47% 41% -16.7%
all 338 +3.4% -6.5% 47% 41% -16.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover37.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.5% 41% -16.7%
10% ← realistic here -15.4% 34% -24.7%
15% -23.6% 27% -32.0%
20% -31.1% 20% -38.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$11 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

29d coverage
Net worth$125
Realized−$404
Unrealized−$35
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses160 / 178
Est. fees paid−$146
Open positions13
Markets (closed)338 / 351
History coverage29d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day37.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 338 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? No 84¢ 100¢ $15 $18 +$3 (+19%)
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 7.5 Under 53¢ 55¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+3%)
Türkiye vs. United States: United States O/U 1.5 Over 51¢ 52¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? No 79¢ 80¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? Yes 36¢ 34¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-7%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? No 23¢ 18¢ $15 $11 −$4 (-24%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Yes 59¢ 55¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-8%)
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? No 71¢ 57¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-19%)
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 Under 28¢ 22¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-23%)
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 Under 28¢ 32¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+12%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? No 74¢ 79¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+7%)
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 Under 21¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? No 34¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 115 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 24 $15 +$10 +69%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $5 +$1 +18%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Soon-Woo Kwon vs Arthur Gea Jun 24 $45 −$21 -47%
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs FOKUS (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group B Jun 24 $15 +$2 +10%
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins Jun 24 $7 −$2 -26%
Targu Mures: Andrej Nedic vs Sebastian Gima Jun 24 $15 $0 +2%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Anastasia Gasanova vs Emerson Jones Jun 24 $15 +$8 +52%
Scotland vs. Brazil: Scotland O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $15 +$1 +4%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 6.5 Jun 24 $15 +$12 +79%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 24 $15 +$1 +5%
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 24 $15 +$1 +6%
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 7.5 Jun 24 $15 +$4 +27%
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 9.5 Jun 24 $15 +$5 +32%
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 24 $14 +$5 +32%
Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5) Jun 24 $15 −$3 -22%
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5 Jun 24 $15 −$15 -100%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 6.5 Jun 24 $14 −$3 -22%
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5) Jun 24 $14 −$3 -20%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 24 $13 −$1 -10%
Panama vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $15 +$8 +52%
Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5) Jun 24 $13 $0 -4%
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5) Jun 24 $15 −$6 -37%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $15 +$10 +64%
Panama vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $15 −$15 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 23 $15 +$8 +53%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $10 +$5 +46%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $10 +$13 +124%
ITF Taipei: Kayo Nishimura vs Yu Ning Tsai Jun 23 $15 −$15 -100%
Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5) Jun 23 $15 +$5 +32%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $15 −$4 -29%
Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5) Jun 23 $15 −$5 -36%
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres Jun 23 $14 −$2 -12%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $20 +$17 +86%
Spread: New York Liberty (-5.5) Jun 22 $15 −$9 -57%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $15 −$15 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $15 −$15 -100%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $15 +$8 +55%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $15 −$10 -66%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $15 +$17 +109%
São Bernardo FC vs. EC Juventude: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 21 $30 $0 +0%
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5) Jun 21 $15 −$14 -99%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 167.5 Jun 21 $10 +$7 +66%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $15 −$3 -21%
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 10.5 Jun 21 $15 +$8 +56%
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) Jun 21 $15 −$4 -23%
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5) Jun 21 $15 −$5 -33%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros: O/U 6.5 Jun 21 $15 −$5 -35%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 12.5 Jun 21 $15 +$10 +67%
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 34¢ $0 53m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 34¢ $3 53m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 34¢ $12 53m
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 21¢ $15 57m
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) SELL Haiti 66¢ $26 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Soon-Woo Kwon vs Arthur Gea BUY Arthur Gea 33¢ $15 6h
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs FOKUS (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group B SELL ECHO 91¢ $17 6h
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs FOKUS (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group B BUY ECHO 82¢ $15 6h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Soon-Woo Kwon vs Arthur Gea SELL Arthur Gea 34¢ $12 6h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Soon-Woo Kwon vs Arthur Gea BUY Arthur Gea 41¢ $15 6h
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins SELL Texas Rangers 39¢ $5 6h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Soon-Woo Kwon vs Arthur Gea SELL Arthur Gea 46¢ $11 6h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Soon-Woo Kwon vs Arthur Gea BUY Arthur Gea 61¢ $15 6h
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins BUY Texas Rangers 52¢ $2 6h
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins BUY Texas Rangers 52¢ $5 6h
Targu Mures: Andrej Nedic vs Sebastian Gima SELL Andrej Nedic 57¢ $6 6h
Targu Mures: Andrej Nedic vs Sebastian Gima SELL Andrej Nedic 57¢ $3 7h
Targu Mures: Andrej Nedic vs Sebastian Gima SELL Andrej Nedic 57¢ $3 7h
Targu Mures: Andrej Nedic vs Sebastian Gima SELL Andrej Nedic 57¢ $4 7h
Targu Mures: Andrej Nedic vs Sebastian Gima BUY Andrej Nedic 55¢ $15 7h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Anastasia Gasanova vs Emerson Jones SELL Anastasia Gasanova 39¢ $12 7h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Anastasia Gasanova vs Emerson Jones SELL Anastasia Gasanova 39¢ $12 7h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Anastasia Gasanova vs Emerson Jones BUY Anastasia Gasanova 25¢ $15 7h
Scotland vs. Brazil: Scotland O/U 1.5 SELL Under 88¢ $11 7h
Scotland vs. Brazil: Scotland O/U 1.5 SELL Under 88¢ $2 9h
Scotland vs. Brazil: Scotland O/U 1.5 SELL Under 88¢ $1 10h
Scotland vs. Brazil: Scotland O/U 1.5 SELL Under 88¢ $1 13h
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 53¢ $15 17h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Haiti 38¢ $15 17h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 53¢ $1 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $124.93 · official $124.93 (match) · 1182 history records