Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T11:41:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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8D 0x8db2…fc0a crypto 266 markets active 0h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$26 (+1%) realized +$24 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate97%252W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day30.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$130now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$21
7 days+$50
14 days+$18
30 days+$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% +$50
politics 6% −$13
finance 3% −$18
sports 1% +$1
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 170 +1.9% -7.8% 99% 1% -7.7%
≤30d 259 +0.3% -9.3% 97% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 259 +0.3% -9.3% 97% 0% -9.1%
all 259 +0.3% -9.3% 97% 0% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.3% 0% -9.1%
10% ← realistic here -17.9% 0% -17.8%
15% -25.9% 0% -25.7%
20% -33.1% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$13 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.2 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$130
Realized+$24
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses252 / 7
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions7
Markets (closed)259 / 266
History coverage9d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day30.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 259 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ralph Norman win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election? No 99¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will Rom Reddy win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election? No 98¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Will Nancy Mace win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election? No 98¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+3%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 8–12%? No 97¢ 100¢ $19 $20 +$1 (+3%)
Will Robert Charles win the 2026 Maine Governor Republican primary election? Yes 95¢ 95¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Up 99¢ 99¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+0%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Up 99¢ 98¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $14 +$1 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $14 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $14 +$1 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +2%
Will Strong Armenia win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A Jun 14 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $15 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 14 $15 +$1 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 14? Jun 14 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? Jun 14 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 14 $15 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 14 $14 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 14 $14 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 14 $14 +$1 +6%
Will Ethereum reach $1,700 on June 13? Jun 14 $15 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 13? Jun 14 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $15 +$1 +7%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 13 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 13 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 13 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 13 $14 +$1 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 13 $15 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $14 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 13 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 13 $15 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $14 +$1 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 13? Jun 13 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 13? Jun 13 $7 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 13 $15 $0 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 13 $15 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 13 $15 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $14 21m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 34m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $15 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $14 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 5h
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14? BUY No 95¢ $14 8h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $11 10h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $2 10h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $2 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $15 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $15 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $15 14h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 15h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $15 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $15 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? BUY Down 99¢ $20 19h
Ethereum Up or Down on June 14? BUY Down 99¢ $20 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $15 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $15 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 27h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $14 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $129.86 · official $129.49 (match) · 523 history records