Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T17:12:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8D 0x8db2…f8a2 crypto 993 markets active 1h ago coverage 68d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 67d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$12,665 (-23%) realized −$12,665 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate60%599W / 394L
Whale WR54%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day40.6pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 68d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% +$1,375
weather 5% −$2
other 1% −$183
sports 1% +$94
economics 1% −$120
politics 0% −$158
world 0% +$24
tech 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 65 +13.9% +3.0% 58% 58% +2.5%
≤30d 206 -1.9% -11.2% 56% 56% -0.7%
≤90d 993 -2.3% -11.6% 60% 41% -8.2%
all 993 -2.3% -11.6% 60% 41% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover40.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.6% 41% -8.2%
10% ← realistic here -20.1% 37% -16.9%
15% -27.8% 33% -25.0%
20% -34.9% 28% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 54% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -4% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$36 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

68d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$12,665
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses599 / 394
Whale WR (big bets)54%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)993 / 993
History coverage68d ⚠
Avg bet$55
Trades / day40.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 993 Trades
no open positions (174 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 25 $41 −$39 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 25 $327 −$314 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 25 $40 −$39 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 25 $41 +$53 +130%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 25 $322 +$246 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 25 $41 +$60 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 25 $40 +$23 +57%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 25 $203 +$222 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 25 $39 +$10 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 25 $121 −$118 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 25 $263 +$124 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 25 $40 +$23 +56%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 25 $317 +$163 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 24 $41 −$39 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 24 $41 +$74 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 24 $38 +$7 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 24 $41 +$68 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 24 $41 −$39 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 24 $41 −$39 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 24 $40 +$28 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 24 $34 +$12 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 24 $41 −$39 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 24 $267 +$111 +42%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 24 $287 −$274 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 24 $356 +$108 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 24 $40 +$20 +50%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 24 $163 −$157 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 24 $41 −$39 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 24 $41 −$39 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 24 $41 −$39 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 23 $40 +$13 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 23 $12 −$12 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 23 $42 +$383 +914%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 23 $326 −$314 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 23 $41 −$39 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 23 $320 +$151 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 23 $41 +$31 +76%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 23 $235 +$39 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 23 $40 +$23 +57%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 23 $321 +$179 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 23 $40 +$15 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 23 $41 −$39 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 22 $40 +$26 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 22 $40 −$39 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 22 $41 −$39 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 22 $41 −$39 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 22 $41 −$39 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 22 $41 +$55 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 22 $41 +$46 +114%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 22 $326 −$312 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $41 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $41 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $41 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $41 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $41 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $41 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $41 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $41 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $41 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $40 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $40 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $40 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $40 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $40 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $40 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $40 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $41 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $40 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $40 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $40 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $41 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $41 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $41 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $40 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $40 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $41 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $40 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $39 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records