Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:52:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8D 0x8db6…8679 weather 66 markets active 1h ago coverage 18d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$39 (+1%) realized +$25 · open +$14
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate63%41W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$78per market
Trades / day6.9pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$71now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$54
7 days−$254
14 days+$207
30 days−$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 31% +$237
sports 27% +$66
weather 25% −$10
politics 9% +$1
crypto 5% −$186
world 3% −$109
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)+1.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -20.2% -27.8% 48% 40% -25.0%
≤30d 65 +12.1% +1.4% 63% 57% -9.8%
≤90d 65 +12.1% +1.4% 63% 57% -9.8%
all 65 +12.1% +1.4% 63% 57% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.4% 57% -9.8%
10% -8.3% 42% -18.4%
15% -17.2% 22% -26.3%
20% -25.3% 12% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +34% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$48 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$71
Realized+$25
Unrealized+$14
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses41 / 24
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)65 / 66
History coverage18d
Avg bet$78
Trades / day6.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 65 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 18? No 77¢ 97¢ $56 $71 +$14 (+26%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $57 −$56 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $86 −$85 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $70 +$22 +32%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $40 +$29 +73%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $123 +$16 +13%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $114 +$8 +7%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $104 +$11 +11%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $81 −$81 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $35 +$46 +130%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $153 −$150 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $123 +$32 +26%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $100 +$23 +23%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $79 +$40 +51%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $17 −$2 -9%
Will Canada reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $23 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 11 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 11 $26 −$25 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June Jun 11 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 11 $32 +$12 +38%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $30 +$13 +42%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $51 −$20 -40%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $21 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 12? Jun 11 $37 −$1 -4%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 5.5 Jun 10 $50 +$20 +40%
Will England win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $119 −$1 -1%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 4.5 Jun 10 $100 +$18 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 10? Jun 10 $25 +$7 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on June 10? Jun 10 $50 +$6 +12%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 10? Jun 10 $25 +$15 +61%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 10? Jun 10 $50 +$9 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 10? Jun 10 $51 +$16 +31%
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican pri Jun 10 $101 −$15 -14%
Will Azerbaijan win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $397 +$61 +15%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 09 $152 +$21 +14%
Cambodia vs. Hong Kong SAR: O/U 1.5 Jun 09 $50 +$15 +30%
Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher world Jun 09 $102 +$40 +39%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 9? Jun 09 $41 −$40 -98%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 8? Jun 09 $61 +$14 +24%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $60 +$14 +23%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 08 $102 −$24 -23%
Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher world Jun 08 $21 +$259 +1238%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 7.5 Jun 08 $99 +$27 +27%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 07 $68 −$68 -99%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 10.5 Jun 07 $30 −$30 -98%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 6.5 Jun 07 $55 +$20 +36%
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 6.5 Jun 07 $79 +$19 +24%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $64 +$15 +23%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 7? Jun 07 $54 +$11 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 18? BUY No 77¢ $57 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 39¢ $57 10h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $86 19h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on June 17? SELL Yes 99¢ $92 20h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 74¢ $70 24h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $69 24h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $40 25h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 0.5 BUY Over 88¢ $123 31h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $123 31h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 0.5 BUY Over 93¢ $114 33h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $115 33h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 0.5 BUY Over 90¢ $104 36h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 79¢ $81 2d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C or below on June 15? SELL Yes 90¢ $81 2d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C or below on June 15? BUY Yes 38¢ $35 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? BUY No 69¢ $153 4d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 13? BUY No $1 4d
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 79¢ $123 5d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? SELL No 100¢ $123 5d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 81¢ $100 5d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 85¢ $119 5d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $16 5d
Will Canada reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 44¢ $23 5d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 57¢ $24 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $26 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $26 6d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June BUY No 16¢ $10 6d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? SELL No 88¢ $44 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 99¢ $43 6d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 54¢ $55 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $70.89 · official $70.89 (match) · 130 history records