Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T20:58:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

8D
0x8db8…c3f0
politics · 269 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$6 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$3 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$22
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses73 / 162
Open positions34
Markets (closed)235 / 269
History coverage4d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day1012.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%
Chart Positions 34 History 235 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? No 100¢ 99¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? No 100¢ 99¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? No 100¢ 99¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Will Trump and Putin not meet? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? No 100¢ 99¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $147 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $114 $0 -0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? Jun 13 $1 $0 -1%
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 Jun 13 $74 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Jun 13 $5 $0 -1%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 13 $11 $0 -0%
Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Jun 13 $42 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 13 $108 $0 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $2 $0 +2%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $9 $0 -1%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $42 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $109 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $38 $0 +0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 13 $8 $0 +0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $92 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $187 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $36 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $42 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $7 $0 +0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $6 $0 -1%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $121 $0 -0%
Will Benny Gantz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $104 $0 -0%
Ethereum all time high by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $72 $0 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $8 $0 +1%
Will Dune: Messiah be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 13 $10 $0 -0%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $12 $0 +0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $4 $0 +0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $11 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $15 $0 -0%
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $6 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $65 $0 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 13 $110 $0 -0%
Will Nir Barkat be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $106 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $37 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $6 $0 +0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $20 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $132 $0 -0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $105 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $40 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $32 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $74 $0 -0%
Will Yair Golan be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $17 $0 -0%
Solana all time high by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $7 $0 +1%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 13 $5 $0 -1%
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Russia? Jun 13 $2 $0 +0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $7 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $2 $0 -2%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 13 $114 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 13 $3 +$1 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 41% $0
other 30% −$3
world 10% +$1
economics 7% $0
culture 6% $0
tech 3% $0
crypto 2% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $0 8m
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $2 8m
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $2 8m
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1 8m
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $2 8m
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $2 8m
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1 8m
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $2 8m
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $2 8m
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $2 8m
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $24 9m
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $2 9m
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1 9m
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $24 9m
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $0 9m
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1 9m
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $0 9m
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 SELL No 100¢ $0 9m
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $2 9m
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $1 10m
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $1 10m
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e SELL No 100¢ $0 10m
Xi Jinping out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $0 10m
Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $0 10m
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb SELL No 99¢ $1 10m
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1 10m
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $0 10m
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $1 10m
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1 10m
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $2 10m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 235 +0.4% -9.2% 31% 2% -9.6%
≤30d 235 +0.4% -9.2% 31% 2% -9.6%
≤90d 235 +0.4% -9.2% 31% 2% -9.6%
all 235 +0.4% -9.2% 31% 2% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1012.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.2% 2% -9.6%
10% ← realistic here -17.9% 1% -18.2%
15% -25.8% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.1% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22.04 · official $16.77 · 3500 history records