Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:50:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
8D 0x8dc1…b863 crypto 741 markets active 1h ago coverage 99d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 99d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,318 (-1%) realized −$2,330 · open +$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate70%515W / 224L
Whale WR88%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$241per market
Trades / day28.3pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$7,568now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$60
7 days+$112
14 days+$187
30 days−$1,837
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 97% −$2,784
crypto 3% −$221
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-14.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.5% -9.0% 100% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 59 -1.6% -10.9% 90% 2% -10.6%
≤90d 201 -3.1% -12.3% 52% 9% -10.8%
all 739 -5.9% -14.8% 70% 29% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.8% 29% -10.9%
10% ← realistic here -23.0% 17% -19.4%
15% -30.4% 12% -27.2%
20% -37.2% 8% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
59% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 88% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$30 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

99d coverage
Net worth$7,568
Realized−$2,330
Unrealized+$12
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses515 / 224
Whale WR (big bets)88%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)739 / 741
History coverage99d ⚠
Avg bet$241
Trades / day28.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 739 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $5,616 $5,625 +$9 (+0%)
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $1,940 $1,943 +$3 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 17 $3,303 +$32 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 17 $3,846 +$8 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 17 $347 +$2 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 16 $390 +$2 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 16 $3,294 +$16 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 15 $3,583 +$14 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $7,092 +$35 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 12 $380 +$3 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 10 $2,152 +$14 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 10 $4,911 +$20 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 09 $372 +$2 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $2,635 +$17 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 05 $3,608 +$18 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $460 +$3 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 04 $459 +$2 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 03 $2,866 +$33 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 02 $1,500 +$4 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 01 $2,818 +$9 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? Jun 01 $1,803 +$11 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 01 $2,969 +$9 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 31 $1,420 +$29 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 30 $5,747 +$18 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 30 $1,309 −$200 -15%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 30 $1,109 +$22 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 29 $771 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 29 $1,532 +$4 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 29 $1,000 +$10 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 29 $878 +$6 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 28 $1,733 +$19 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 28 $119 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 28 $317 +$2 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 27 $199 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 27 $692 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 27 $4,331 +$29 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? May 27 $159 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 27 $734 +$5 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 27 $778 +$4 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 27 $279 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 27 $817 +$5 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 27 $1,301 +$8 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 27 $319 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 25 $1,910 +$16 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 25 $2,901 +$19 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 24 $390 −$35 -9%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 24 $2,511 +$13 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 24 $825 +$4 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 23 $352 +$2 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 23 $4,605 +$29 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $1,628 +$765 +47%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $3,011 −$1,209 -40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $3,853 1h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $397 1h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $3,457 1h
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $394 1h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $349 18h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $128 31h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $99 31h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $119 31h
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $392 31h
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $1,371 39h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $1,941 39h
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $3,310 42h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $3,846 2d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $3,596 2d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $2,546 3d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $748 3d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $3,583 3d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $7,127 3d
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $390 4d
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $383 5d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $2,191 6d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $2,166 7d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $4,902 7d
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $4,931 7d
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $380 8d
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $374 8d
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $550 9d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $874 9d
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $1,223 9d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $2,652 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7,568.28 · official $7,568.28 (match) · 3500 history records