trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 16¢ | 17¢ | $6 | $6 | +$0 (+5%) |
| Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 7¢ | 11¢ | $1 | $1 | +$0 (+50%) |
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? | Yes | 90¢ | 100¢ | $1 | $1 | +$0 (+11%) |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 18¢ | 16¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-8%) |
| Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Curaçao? | Yes | 13¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 | Jun 14 | $1 | −$1 | -56% |
| Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao? | Jun 14 | $1 | −$1 | -62% |
| Will Fabiano Caruana win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? | Apr 14 | $1 | +$1 | +61% |
| Will Javokhir Sindarov win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? | Apr 14 | $1 | +$5 | +454% |
| Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Masters tournament? | Apr 14 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET | Mar 31 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET | Mar 31 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Donald Trump say "Syria / Syrian" 10+ times during Syria Presiden | Mar 31 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET | Mar 31 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET | Feb 13 | $5 | +$5 | +110% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET | Feb 13 | $2 | +$2 | +103% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET | Feb 13 | $1 | +$1 | +93% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET | Feb 13 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET | Feb 13 | $1 | +$1 | +94% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET | Feb 12 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET | Feb 12 | $1 | +$1 | +72% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET | Feb 12 | $1 | −$1 | -98% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET | Feb 12 | $1 | $0 | +48% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET | Feb 11 | $1 | $0 | +12% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET | Feb 11 | $1 | $0 | +46% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET | Feb 10 | $1 | $0 | +29% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET | Feb 10 | $1 | $0 | +34% |
| Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? | Feb 10 | $1 | $0 | -2% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 2 | -59.1% | -63.0% | 0% | 0% | -63.0% |
| ≤30d | 2 | -59.1% | -63.0% | 0% | 0% | -63.0% |
| ≤90d | 9 | -11.4% | -19.8% | 22% | 22% | -35.2% |
| all | 23 | +10.3% | -0.2% | 52% | 52% | +4.6% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -0.2% | 52% | +4.6% |
| 10% | -9.8% | 48% | -5.4% |
| 15% | -18.5% | 39% | -14.5% |
| 20% | -26.5% | 30% | -22.9% |