Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T13:13:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
8D 0x8dc7…116f other 443 markets active 1h ago coverage 699d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$3,177 (+3%) realized +$2,551 · open +$626
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate65%234W / 125L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$276per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$32est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$25,778now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$145
7 days+$813
14 days+$878
30 days+$709
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$996
politics 21% +$3,581
crypto 15% −$416
world 10% +$513
sports 4% +$634
tech 2% +$46
economics 1% +$400
culture 1% −$628
finance 0% −$34
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-6.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +7.6% -2.7% 73% 64% +4.1%
≤30d 15 +5.2% -4.8% 73% 67% +0.9%
≤90d 51 +17.0% +5.8% 75% 65% +3.4%
all 359 +3.3% -6.6% 65% 47% -7.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.6% 47% -7.2%
10% -15.5% 31% -16.1%
15% -23.7% 19% -24.2%
20% -31.2% 14% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late +10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$78 vs −$127 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

699d coverage
Net worth$25,778
Realized+$2,551
Unrealized+$626
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses234 / 125
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$32
Open positions84
Markets (closed)359 / 443
History coverage699d
Avg bet$276
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 84 History 359 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No 87¢ 94¢ $2,297 $2,498 +$201 (+9%)
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? No 54¢ 57¢ $1,090 $1,140 +$50 (+5%)
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? Yes 83¢ 88¢ $1,079 $1,131 +$52 (+5%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 15¢ $574 $1,081 +$507 (+88%)
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 48¢ 56¢ $718 $847 +$130 (+18%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 12¢ 22¢ $388 $734 +$346 (+89%)
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections? Yes 88¢ 95¢ $616 $663 +$47 (+8%)
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? No 80¢ 90¢ $557 $634 +$77 (+14%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No 90¢ 96¢ $542 $575 +$33 (+6%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $592 $565 −$27 (-5%)
Will Lighter reach $6 before 2027? No 69¢ 90¢ $421 $549 +$128 (+31%)
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House Yes 40¢ 36¢ $593 $548 −$45 (-8%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 17¢ 15¢ $611 $541 −$70 (-12%)
Felix Protocol FDV above $25M one day after launch? Yes 80¢ 44¢ $984 $532 −$452 (-46%)
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No 77¢ 94¢ $438 $531 +$94 (+21%)
Will Lighter reach $10 before 2027? No 85¢ 92¢ $481 $522 +$41 (+9%)
Will Linke win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? No 82¢ 78¢ $507 $488 −$20 (-4%)
Will Lighter reach $8 before 2027? No 80¢ 92¢ $420 $482 +$62 (+15%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 25¢ 23¢ $527 $482 −$45 (-9%)
Puffpaw FDV above $200M one day after launch? No 86¢ 79¢ $517 $474 −$43 (-8%)
Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch? No 68¢ 46¢ $646 $432 −$214 (-33%)
Ink FDV above $1B one day after launch? No 78¢ 82¢ $403 $428 +$25 (+6%)
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? No 50¢ 67¢ $300 $405 +$105 (+35%)
Will Donald Trump be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? No 89¢ 99¢ $356 $398 +$42 (+12%)
Cap FDV above $50M one day after launch? Yes 87¢ 96¢ $348 $382 +$34 (+10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $338 +$162 +48%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $667 +$333 +50%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $215 −$210 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $437 −$430 -98%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $467 +$533 +114%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $696 +$304 +44%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $304 +$196 +65%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $677 +$323 +48%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $883 +$117 +13%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 16 $527 −$520 -99%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $218 +$5 +2%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SEX? Jun 12 $219 +$30 +14%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SPAX? Jun 12 $114 +$35 +30%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $138 +$62 +45%
Ethereum flipped in 2026? May 27 $391 −$231 -59%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $699 +$64 +9%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? May 10 $4 −$4 -95%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $97 +$403 +414%
Will 1. FSV Mainz 05 win on 2026-05-10? May 09 $567 −$560 -99%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? May 08 $484 +$816 +169%
Will Olivia rank #1 among girl names on the SSA’s official list for 20 May 08 $2 $0 +15%
Will Liam rank #1 among boy names on the SSA’s official list for 2025? May 08 $96 +$32 +33%
Will Kim Kardashian pass the bar exam by May 3? May 04 $22 +$5 +22%
Will 1. FC Union Berlin win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $502 +$298 +60%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? May 01 $340 +$60 +18%
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30? May 01 $138 +$62 +45%
Gensyn FDV above $1B one day after launch? Apr 30 $141 +$9 +6%
Gensyn FDV above $800M one day after launch? Apr 30 $180 +$20 +11%
Gensyn FDV above $600M one day after launch? Apr 30 $187 +$41 +22%
Will 1. FC Köln win on 2026-05-02? Apr 30 $252 −$247 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28? Apr 29 $500 −$500 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? Apr 26 $500 −$490 -98%
Will the S&P 500 have the best performance in 2026? Apr 25 $162 +$7 +4%
Spread: RB Leipzig (-1.5) Apr 25 $484 +$510 +105%
Will RB Leipzig win on 2026-04-24? Apr 25 $1,428 +$564 +40%
Space FDV above $15M one day after launch? Apr 22 $216 −$203 -94%
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Apr 18 $419 +$274 +66%
Space FDV above $40M one day after launch? Apr 12 $352 −$7 -2%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st? Apr 03 $166 −$166 -100%
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31? Apr 03 $122 −$122 -100%
EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch? Apr 02 $25 +$73 +293%
EdgeX FDV above $4B one day after launch? Apr 02 $208 +$18 +9%
EdgeX FDV above $2B one day after launch? Apr 02 $221 +$91 +41%
EdgeX FDV above $3B one day after launch? Apr 02 $361 +$62 +17%
NATO x Russia military clash by March 31, 2026? Apr 01 $168 +$32 +19%
ICE shooter charged by March 31? Apr 01 $253 +$152 +60%
Will Trump create a tariff dividend by March 31? Apr 01 $386 +$60 +16%
ICE Shooter fired/resigns by March 31? Apr 01 $579 +$121 +21%
Will any Minnesota politician be charged with fraud by March 31? Apr 01 $749 +$118 +16%
Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by March 31? Apr 01 $650 +$224 +34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bruno Fernandes record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY No 93¢ $54 1h
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliam BUY Yes 87¢ $8 1h
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliam BUY Yes 87¢ $54 1h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 38¢ $194 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $343 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $338 14h
Will Deniz Undav be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $90 15h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $667 23h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $155 23h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 21¢ $215 25h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 43¢ $437 28h
Will France reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 43¢ $14 44h
Will France reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 43¢ $5 2d
Will France reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 45¢ $311 4d
Will Linke win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? BUY No 80¢ $252 4d
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $51 4d
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 46¢ $467 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $696 4d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 88¢ $883 4d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 52¢ $527 5d
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 60¢ $304 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $677 5d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $329 5d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 89¢ $223 5d
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? BUY Yes 15¢ $0 9d
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliam BUY Yes 85¢ $73 18d
Ethereum flipped in 2026? SELL No 59¢ $155 25d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 25d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $193 25d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $171 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25,777.87 · official $25,773.89 (match) · 2500 history records