Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T12:36:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
8D 0x8dc7…c3e2 other 6 markets active 2h ago coverage 12d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$263 (-7%) realized −$365 · open +$102
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -74% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -76% what you keep after slip
Net edge-76%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$630per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$2,587now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 12d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$402
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-76.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -73.9% -76.4% 0% 0% -46.7%
≤30d 3 -73.9% -76.4% 0% 0% -46.7%
≤90d 3 -73.9% -76.4% 0% 0% -46.7%
all 3 -73.9% -76.4% 0% 0% -46.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -76.4% 0% -46.7%
10% -78.7% 0% -51.8%
15% -80.7% 0% -56.4%
20% -82.6% 0% -60.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -41% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -74% · $-wt -41% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$168 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$2,587
Realized−$365
Unrealized+$102
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 3
Open positions3
Markets (closed)3 / 6
History coverage12d
Avg bet$630
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 20¢ $1,400 $1,603 +$203 (+14%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $762 $665 −$97 (-13%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $323 $319 −$4 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $303 −$300 -99%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $922 −$200 -22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $784 2h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 32¢ $3 14h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 72¢ $303 4d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $206 6d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $512 6d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $722 6d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $126 11d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $923 11d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $922 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,586.74 · official $2,586.74 (match) · 21 history records