Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:13:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
8D 0x8dc8…ea44 other 99 markets active 2h ago coverage 87d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$37 (-0%) realized −$37 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate13%13W / 84L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$241per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$267now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 66% −$24
politics 24% −$6
economics 5% −$1
sports 3% −$7
crypto 2% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 12 -0.1% -9.6% 17% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 97 +0.8% -8.8% 13% 10% -9.7%
all 97 +0.8% -8.8% 13% 10% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 10% -9.7%
10% -17.5% 10% -18.3%
15% -25.5% 9% -26.2%
20% -32.8% 8% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +2% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$1 · ×4.43 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

87d coverage
Net worth$267
Realized−$37
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses13 / 84
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)97 / 99
History coverage87d
Avg bet$241
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 97 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $195 $195 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $72 $72 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 20 $60 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $50 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $298 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $630 −$1 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $325 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $403 $0 -0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in May? Jun 05 $68 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? Jun 05 $118 $0 +0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $358 $0 -0%
Will David Lammy be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 May 27 $41 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 26 $47 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 23 $627 −$1 -0%
Will Yariv Levin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 20 $58 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $337 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $750 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 16 $269 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 14 $289 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 14 $534 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 08 $267 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 07 $294 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $550 −$1 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $552 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 04 $535 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? May 03 $273 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $268 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $564 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $282 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 24 $595 −$1 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 20 $301 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $513 −$1 -0%
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 16 $297 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $293 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 15 $287 −$1 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $279 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $296 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $304 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $293 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? Apr 13 $514 −$1 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 13 $286 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 13 $296 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $283 $0 -0%
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 12 $292 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 12 $281 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 11 $293 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 10 $300 $0 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 10 $566 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 10 $281 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 10 $286 $0 -0%
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 09 $283 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 09 $303 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $60 1h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $60 5h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $50 22h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $50 23h
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $72 31h
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in June? BUY No 100¢ $195 5d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $36 5d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $36 6d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $59 12d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $59 13d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $56 13d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $56 14d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $37 14d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $37 15d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $62 22d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $62 22d
Will David Lammy be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 SELL No 100¢ $41 23d
Will David Lammy be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 BUY No 100¢ $41 23d
Will XRP reach $3.00 in May? BUY No 100¢ $68 24d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $47 24d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $47 25d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $60 28d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $60 28d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $118 28d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $58 29d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $58 29d
Will Yariv Levin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $58 31d
Will Yariv Levin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $58 31d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $52 31d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $53 32d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $267.33 · official $267.33 (match) · 256 history records