trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 11 | -31.1% | -37.7% | 27% | 27% | -51.6% |
| ≤30d | 44 | -48.6% | -53.5% | 23% | 23% | -56.6% |
| ≤90d | 94 | -9.2% | -17.9% | 36% | 34% | -21.0% |
| all | 120 | -11.7% | -20.1% | 38% | 34% | -41.5% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -20.1% | 34% | -41.5% |
| 10% | -27.7% | 29% | -47.1% |
| 15% | -34.7% | 25% | -52.2% |
| 20% | -41.1% | 22% | -56.9% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 11¢ | 10¢ | $2 | $2 | −$0 (-5%) |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 16¢ | 18¢ | $1 | $1 | +$0 (+15%) |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Yes | 35¢ | 25¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-30%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? | Jun 15 | $5 | −$5 | -99% |
| Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? | Jun 15 | $1 | −$1 | -98% |
| Spurs vs. Knicks | Jun 14 | $1 | $0 | -7% |
| Knicks vs. Spurs | Jun 14 | $1 | +$2 | +158% |
| Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? | Jun 12 | $1 | −$1 | -99% |
| Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? | Jun 12 | $1 | +$2 | +165% |
| Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? | Jun 11 | $1 | −$1 | -98% |
| Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? | Jun 11 | $1 | −$1 | -98% |
| Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? | Jun 11 | $2 | +$1 | +41% |
| Spurs vs. Knicks | Jun 10 | $2 | −$2 | -98% |
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? | Jun 10 | $1 | −$1 | -99% |
| Spurs vs. Knicks | Jun 09 | $1 | +$1 | +114% |
| Knicks vs. Spurs | Jun 01 | $1 | −$1 | -99% |
| Knicks vs. Spurs | Jun 01 | $1 | −$1 | -99% |
| Spurs vs. Thunder | May 31 | $2 | +$3 | +129% |
| Thunder vs. Spurs | May 29 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Cavaliers vs. Knicks | May 26 | $1 | $0 | +20% |
| Knicks vs. Cavaliers | May 26 | $1 | +$1 | +73% |
| Thunder vs. Spurs | May 25 | $1 | +$1 | +119% |
| Knicks vs. Cavaliers | May 24 | $2 | +$1 | +68% |
| Spurs vs. Thunder | May 23 | $1 | −$1 | -98% |
| Cavaliers vs. Knicks | May 22 | $2 | −$1 | -26% |
| Cavaliers vs. Knicks | May 20 | $4 | −$1 | -24% |
| Knicks vs. 76ers | May 19 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Pistons vs. Cavaliers | May 19 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Pistons vs. Cavaliers | May 19 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Cavaliers vs. Pistons | May 19 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Spurs vs. Timberwolves | May 19 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| 76ers vs. Knicks | May 19 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Raptors vs. Cavaliers | May 19 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Magic vs. Pistons | May 19 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Timberwolves vs. Spurs | May 19 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Thunder vs. Lakers | May 19 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Raptors vs. Cavaliers | May 19 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| 76ers vs. Knicks | May 19 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Pistons vs. Magic | May 19 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Cavaliers vs. Pistons | May 19 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Spurs vs. Timberwolves | May 19 | $3 | −$3 | -100% |
| Thunder vs. Lakers | May 19 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Lakers vs. Thunder | May 19 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Hawks vs. Knicks | May 19 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Trump visit China by May 31? | May 19 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? | May 19 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Spurs vs. Thunder | May 19 | $1 | +$2 | +206% |
| Cavaliers vs. Pistons | May 18 | $1 | +$2 | +158% |
| Thunder vs. Spurs | May 17 | $1 | −$1 | -99% |
| Spurs vs. Thunder | May 17 | $1 | −$1 | -98% |
| Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? | May 17 | $1 | $0 | -6% |
| Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? | May 17 | $1 | $0 | -6% |
| Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? | May 17 | $1 | $0 | +1% |