Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T01:51:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8D 0x8dcb…dbe9 crypto 434 markets active 0h ago coverage 28d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$468 (+6%) realized +$399 · open +$69
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate35%152W / 278L
Drawdown97%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day32.4pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$140now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$25
7 days−$25
14 days−$159
30 days+$105
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% +$219
sports 3% −$42
world 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-15.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -14.2% -22.4% 33% 33% -14.6%
≤30d 430 -6.0% -15.0% 35% 23% -11.9%
≤90d 430 -6.0% -15.0% 35% 23% -11.9%
all 430 -6.0% -15.0% 35% 23% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover32.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.0% 23% -11.9%
10% ← realistic here -23.1% 19% -20.4%
15% -30.5% 17% -28.1%
20% -37.4% 16% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
34% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$12 · ×1.88 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$140
Realized+$399
Unrealized+$69
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses152 / 278
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions4
Markets (closed)430 / 434
History coverage28d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day32.4
Drawdown97%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 430 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Up 25¢ 50¢ $30 $61 +$31 (+101%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Down 26¢ 50¢ $20 $38 +$18 (+90%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Down 27¢ 50¢ $15 $27 +$12 (+83%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Up 19¢ 50¢ $5 $13 +$8 (+166%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 100 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 22 $52 +$35 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 22 $50 −$47 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 22 $47 +$94 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 22 $94 −$47 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 22 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 22 $58 −$47 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 22 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 22 $21 −$18 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 21 $61 +$69 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 08 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 08 $66 +$32 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 08 $59 −$56 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 08 $78 −$38 -49%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 08 $102 −$5 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 08 $32 +$5 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 08 $30 −$29 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 08 $42 −$40 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 08 $44 +$28 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 08 $42 −$38 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 08 $27 +$33 +123%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 08 $68 −$57 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $125 −$20 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 08 $26 −$21 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 08 $53 −$48 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 08 $37 +$52 +141%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 08 $11 +$35 +331%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 08 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 08 $33 −$32 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 08 $57 +$43 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 08 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 08 $37 −$35 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 08 $42 +$9 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 08 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 08 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 08 $26 +$117 +440%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 08 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 08 $26 −$24 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 08 $39 +$117 +299%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 08 $57 −$54 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 08 $32 +$100 +314%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 08 $66 −$42 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 08 $26 −$21 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 08 $43 −$40 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 08 $32 −$21 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 08 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 08 $41 +$70 +171%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 08 $47 −$45 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 07 $25 −$25 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 07 $10 −$10 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $21 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $16 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET SELL Up 31¢ $87 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $10 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $11 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $31 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET SELL Down 1¢ $3 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $11 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $39 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $5 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET SELL Down 29¢ $45 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $36 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $142 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET SELL Down 2¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $42 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET SELL Down 33¢ $44 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $42 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $37 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET SELL Up 59¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET SELL Up 5¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $32 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $139.75 · official $139.75 (match) · 1125 history records