Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T22:08:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

8D 0x8dcc…680c other 20 markets active 2h ago coverage 101d

TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)

Total PnL +$451 (+4%) realized +$451 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip

Net edge-9%after slip

Net WR15%break-even

Win rate95%19W / 1L

Whale WR80%big bets

Drawdown89%max

Avg bet$538per market

Trades / day0.2pace

Fees−$6est.

Kalshi-fit55%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$1

7 days+$182

14 days+$402

30 days+$403

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +15%

net ROI/market (all)-5.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	4	+13.4%	+2.6%	75%	50%	-4.0%
≤30d	8	+11.7%	+1.1%	88%	38%	-2.7%
≤90d	17	+5.6%	-4.5%	94%	18%	-5.7%
all	20	+4.8%	-5.2%	95%	15%	-6.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.2 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-5.2%	15%	-6.0%
10%	-14.2%	15%	-15.0%
15%	-22.5%	15%	-23.2%
20%	-30.1%	5%	-30.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 40% · top 2 73% concentrated in a few bets

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

84% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +5% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR 80% (≥$563) strong on big bets

Persistence

early +0% → late +9% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$46 vs −$463 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×1.9 per $1 lost it wins $1.9

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

101d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$451

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)95%

Wins / losses19 / 1

Whale WR (big bets)80%

Est. fees paid−$6

Open positions0

Markets (closed)20 / 20

History coverage101d

Avg bet$538

Trades / day0.2

Drawdown89%

Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 20 Trades

no open positions

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 26	$563	+$1	+0%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 22	$595	+$354	+60%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$1,057	−$463	-44%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5	Jun 21	$767	+$290	+38%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$758	+$2	+0%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$548	+$217	+40%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 8?	Jun 09	$547	+$1	+0%
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $216 in May?	Jun 01	$537	+$1	+0%
Will the Liberal Democrats win control of the most London borough coun	May 10	$300	+$1	+0%
Will Reform UK win the most seats in the 2026 Scottish Parliament elec	May 09	$240	$0	+0%
Pistons vs. Magic	May 02	$500	$0	+0%
Will Arvell Reese be the first pick of the 2026 NFL Draft?	Apr 28	$546	+$1	+0%
Will Justin Bieber feature Bad Bunny during his Coachella performances	Apr 21	$545	+$1	+0%
Will Amazon (AMZN) finish week of April 6 above $180?	Apr 11	$545	+$1	+0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on April 5?	Apr 09	$544	+$1	+0%
Knicks vs. Rockets	Apr 01	$543	+$1	+0%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close above $1.00 end of March?	Apr 01	$542	+$1	+0%
76ers vs. Jazz	Mar 23	$537	+$5	+1%
Will the price of Solana be above $140 on March 20?	Mar 21	$171	$0	+0%
Will the price of Solana be above $130 on March 20?	Mar 21	$365	+$1	+0%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26?	BUY No	100¢	$563	1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	62¢	$595	4d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	SELL Yes	41¢	$594	4d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	71¢	$1,057	5d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	72¢	$767	5d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19?	BUY No	100¢	$758	7d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	71¢	$548	8d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 8?	BUY No	100¢	$547	19d
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $216 in May?	BUY No	100¢	$537	32d
Will Reform UK win the most seats in the 2026 Scottish Parliament elec	BUY No	100¢	$240	51d
Will the Liberal Democrats win control of the most London borough coun	BUY No	100¢	$300	51d
Pistons vs. Magic	BUY Pistons	100¢	$500	55d
Will Arvell Reese be the first pick of the 2026 NFL Draft?	BUY No	100¢	$546	64d
Will Justin Bieber feature Bad Bunny during his Coachella performances	BUY No	100¢	$545	71d
Will Amazon (AMZN) finish week of April 6 above $180?	BUY Yes	100¢	$545	78d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on April 5?	BUY Yes	100¢	$544	84d
Knicks vs. Rockets	BUY Rockets	100¢	$543	86d
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close above $1.00 end of March?	BUY Yes	100¢	$542	94d
76ers vs. Jazz	BUY 76ers	99¢	$537	96d
Will the price of Solana be above $130 on March 20?	BUY No	100¢	$365	100d
Will the price of Solana be above $140 on March 20?	BUY No	100¢	$171	100d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 45 history records