Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:57:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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8D 0x8dce…8f73 crypto 1289 markets active 2h ago coverage 112d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 111d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$4,495 (-18%) realized −$4,495 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate70%896W / 392L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day16.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 112d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$640
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 176 -7.4% -16.2% 69% 53% -17.2%
≤30d 433 +1.9% -7.8% 73% 59% -10.1%
≤90d 648 -0.1% -9.6% 71% 60% -11.6%
all 1288 -1.1% -10.5% 70% 58% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 58% -11.8%
10% -19.0% 42% -20.3%
15% -26.9% 28% -28.0%
20% -34.0% 17% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$15 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

112d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$4,495
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses896 / 392
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1288 / 1289
History coverage112d ⚠
Avg bet$20
Trades / day16.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1288 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$1 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$3 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 14 $15 −$3 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$3 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$4 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$5 +52%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $5 3h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET SELL Down 52¢ $4 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.88 · official $4.88 (match) · 3500 history records