Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:40:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8D 0x8dcf…e807 crypto 15 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$36 (+13%) realized +$37 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate31%4W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$19now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-20.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -12.4% -20.8% 31% 31% -11.2%
≤30d 13 -12.4% -20.8% 31% 31% -11.2%
≤90d 13 -12.4% -20.8% 31% 31% -11.2%
all 13 -12.4% -20.8% 31% 31% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.8% 31% -11.2%
10% -28.4% 31% -19.7%
15% -35.3% 23% -27.4%
20% -41.6% 23% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 81% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -25% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$9 · ×2.11 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$19
Realized+$37
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses4 / 9
Open positions2
Markets (closed)13 / 15
History coverage3d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 20? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $12 $11 −$1 (-4%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 20? No 24¢ 22¢ $8 $7 −$1 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 18? Jun 17 $34 −$7 -21%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 18? Jun 17 $22 −$18 -82%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 20? Jun 17 $21 −$16 -74%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 20? Jun 17 $22 +$28 +125%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $43 +$32 +75%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? Jun 16 $22 −$10 -44%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 17? Jun 16 $22 +$14 +63%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $11 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $21 −$3 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 15 $22 −$3 -16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 20? BUY Yes 23¢ $13 20m
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 20? BUY No 24¢ $9 21m
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 18? SELL No 13¢ $16 32m
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 18? SELL Yes 8¢ $4 32m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 20? SELL Yes 16¢ $6 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 20? SELL No 44¢ $49 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 20? BUY No 16¢ $22 6h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 20? BUY Yes 51¢ $21 6h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 9¢ $20 34h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? BUY No 46¢ $22 34h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 18? BUY No 16¢ $22 43h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 18? SELL No 14¢ $11 43h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 18? BUY No 15¢ $12 43h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 18? BUY Yes 40¢ $22 43h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? SELL No 12¢ $12 44h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? SELL No 54¢ $32 44h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 17? SELL No 66¢ $35 44h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? BUY No 31¢ $22 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 17? BUY No 35¢ $22 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? BUY No 20¢ $22 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? SELL Yes 42¢ $10 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 37¢ $11 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET SELL Down 50¢ $18 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $21 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET SELL Down 49¢ $18 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $22 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18.81 · official $18.81 (match) · 32 history records