Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T07:39:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
8D 0x8dcf…f303 weather 112 markets active 1h ago coverage 118d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$16 · open −$16
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate95%104W / 6L
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$119per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$210now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$0
14 days+$3
30 days+$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 99% −$6
politics 0% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.1% -9.6% 86% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 62 +0.1% -9.4% 98% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 103 -0.9% -10.4% 97% 0% -9.5%
all 110 -0.9% -10.3% 95% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 0% -9.5%
10% -18.9% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.7% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.9% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×4.07 per $1 lost it wins $4.07
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

118d coverage
Net worth$210
Realized+$16
Unrealized−$16
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses104 / 6
Open positions2
Markets (closed)110 / 112
History coverage118d
Avg bet$119
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 110 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 22? No 99¢ 93¢ $169 $158 −$11 (-6%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 22? No 100¢ 92¢ $57 $52 −$5 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 22? Jun 22 $173 −$2 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 21? Jun 21 $339 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 20? Jun 20 $338 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 19? Jun 19 $338 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 17? Jun 18 $337 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 17? Jun 17 $105 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 15? Jun 16 $337 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 14? Jun 15 $336 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on June 14? Jun 14 $336 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $329 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on June 12? Jun 13 $335 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 12? Jun 12 $330 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $0 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $335 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 10? Jun 11 $163 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on June 10? Jun 10 $174 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 10? Jun 10 $77 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 10? Jun 10 $86 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 9? Jun 10 $177 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 10 $69 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 9? Jun 09 $271 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 9? Jun 09 $64 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on June 8? Jun 09 $119 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 10°C on June 8? Jun 09 $220 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 7? Jun 08 $115 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 7? Jun 07 $190 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 29°C on June 7? Jun 07 $140 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 7? Jun 07 $198 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 6? Jun 06 $138 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 6? Jun 06 $199 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on June 5? Jun 06 $226 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on Ju Jun 06 $112 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on June 5? Jun 05 $108 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 5? Jun 05 $226 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on June 4? Jun 04 $230 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 4? Jun 04 $31 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C on June 4? Jun 04 $77 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 3? Jun 04 $78 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 3? Jun 03 $112 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 3? Jun 03 $129 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 3? Jun 03 $94 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 2? Jun 03 $112 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 17°C on June 2? Jun 03 $131 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 2? Jun 02 $94 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 29°C on June 2? Jun 02 $104 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 2? Jun 02 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 2? Jun 02 $131 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 57°F or below on June 1? Jun 02 $132 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $57 1h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 22? SELL No 99¢ $171 1h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $173 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 22? BUY No 99¢ $169 3h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $339 30h
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $338 41h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $338 2d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $337 4d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $11 4d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $12 4d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $82 4d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 18°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $337 6d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $336 7d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $336 7d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $329 8d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $7 8d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $335 9d
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $330 9d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $5 9d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $0 9d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $335 10d
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $163 11d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $174 11d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $77 12d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $86 12d
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $177 12d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $69 12d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $271 12d
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $64 13d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $119 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $210.20 · official $210.20 (match) · 239 history records