Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T12:47:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
8D 0x8dd0…adec crypto 128 markets active 2d ago coverage 96d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$509 (+15%) realized +$509 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate62%79W / 49L
Drawdown40%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$43
7 days+$1
14 days+$209
30 days+$83
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$443
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)+6.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +9.8% -0.7% 60% 60% -9.0%
≤30d 30 +11.7% +1.0% 60% 60% -3.0%
≤90d 113 +19.1% +7.8% 63% 63% +3.1%
all 128 +17.2% +6.0% 62% 62% +2.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +6.0% 62% +2.1%
10% -4.1% 62% -7.7%
15% -13.4% 62% -16.6%
20% -21.9% 62% -24.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late +24% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$28 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.32 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

96d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized+$509
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses79 / 49
Open positions0
Markets (closed)128 / 128
History coverage96d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown40%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 128 Trades
no open positions (49 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9PM ET Jun 15 $52 +$43 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11PM ET Jun 14 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11PM ET Jun 12 $52 +$42 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1AM ET Jun 10 $20 +$17 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12AM ET Jun 10 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3AM ET Jun 09 $52 +$43 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11PM ET Jun 08 $52 −$51 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1AM ET Jun 06 $53 +$42 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5PM ET Jun 06 $50 +$45 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3AM ET Jun 06 $50 +$45 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12AM ET Jun 05 $50 +$43 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12AM ET Jun 03 $50 +$43 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4AM ET Jun 02 $16 −$16 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11PM ET Jun 02 $11 +$9 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6AM ET Jun 01 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9PM ET Jun 01 $47 +$39 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6PM ET May 29 $50 −$48 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3AM ET May 28 $11 +$10 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2AM ET May 28 $13 +$12 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1AM ET May 28 $11 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12AM ET May 28 $16 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8PM ET May 27 $13 +$12 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4PM ET May 26 $42 +$38 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5AM ET May 23 $51 −$49 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 9PM ET May 23 $51 +$45 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4PM ET May 23 $2 +$2 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6AM ET May 22 $51 +$45 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 10PM ET May 21 $50 −$49 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6PM ET May 20 $51 −$49 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9PM ET May 18 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5AM ET May 16 $29 −$28 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8PM ET May 12 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4PM ET May 10 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12AM ET May 09 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12AM ET May 08 $5 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 6PM ET May 08 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 6PM ET May 06 $5 +$4 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5PM ET May 06 $5 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 3AM ET May 05 $5 +$5 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1AM ET May 05 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12AM ET May 05 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11PM ET May 05 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1AM ET May 04 $5 +$5 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 11PM ET May 03 $5 +$5 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 8PM ET Apr 26 $5 +$4 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 5PM ET Apr 25 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 5AM ET Apr 25 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 4AM ET Apr 25 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 5AM ET Apr 24 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 3AM ET Apr 23 $5 +$5 +93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $31 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $4 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $11 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $38 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $11 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $44 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $17 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $41 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $11 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $35 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $16 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $49 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $43 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $53 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $47 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $46 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $4 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $42 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.80 · official $9.80 (match) · 235 history records