Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:52:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8D 0x8dd1…bf74 crypto 115 markets active 1h ago coverage 75d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$80 (-5%) realized −$79 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate39%44W / 68L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$74now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$98
7 days+$111
14 days+$111
30 days+$111
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 60% −$146
sports 26% +$42
other 14% +$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-26.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +1.3% -8.4% 56% 52% +11.0%
≤30d 25 +1.3% -8.4% 56% 52% +11.0%
≤90d 112 -18.8% -26.5% 39% 32% -14.8%
all 112 -18.8% -26.5% 39% 32% -14.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.5% 32% -14.8%
10% -33.5% 32% -23.0%
15% -40.0% 28% -30.4%
20% -45.8% 20% -37.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -29% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$8 · ×1.29 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

75d coverage
Net worth$74
Realized−$79
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses44 / 68
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions3
Markets (closed)112 / 115
History coverage75d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 112 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Belgium 44¢ 47¢ $30 $32 +$2 (+7%)
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Over 55¢ 48¢ $25 $22 −$3 (-12%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 70¢ 70¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 6.5 Jun 21 $50 +$12 +24%
Spread: Spain (-5.5) Jun 21 $42 +$18 +41%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $15 −$15 -97%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $20 −$20 -99%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $15 +$21 +140%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $71 +$31 +44%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 1 Japan? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 2 Japan? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $8 +$15 +184%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $51 +$25 +50%
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 21 $6 −$6 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $50 +$22 +44%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $29 +$17 +58%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 20 $7 +$8 +114%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $10 −$1 -8%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 20 $16 +$6 +36%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $15 +$11 +70%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $10 −$5 -45%
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $10 −$10 -99%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $17 +$2 +10%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $5 +$6 +122%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10 +$5 +50%
Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Rune Eaters - Game 1 Winner Apr 15 $12 −$12 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Apr 09 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Apr 09 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Apr 09 $4 +$3 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Apr 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Apr 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Apr 09 $1 +$1 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Apr 09 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Apr 09 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Apr 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Apr 08 $12 −$3 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Apr 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Apr 08 $1 −$1 -95%
Game 3: Ends in Daytime? Apr 08 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Apr 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Apr 08 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Apr 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Apr 08 $11 −$7 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Apr 08 $4 −$3 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Apr 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Apr 08 $2 −$1 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Apr 08 $16 +$18 +115%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Apr 08 $7 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Apr 08 $2 −$1 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Apr 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 44¢ $31 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $25 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $20 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 100¢ $62 1h
Spread: Spain (-5.5) SELL Saudi Arabia 100¢ $60 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 80¢ $50 2h
Spread: Spain (-5.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 70¢ $42 3h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 4¢ $15 13h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 52¢ $20 13h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 17h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 17h
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 17h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 17h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 41¢ $15 17h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $71 17h
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 1 Curaçao? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 18h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 45¢ $5 18h
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 1 Curaçao? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 18h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $3 18h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 66¢ $51 19h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 69¢ $50 24h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 92¢ $46 26h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) SELL Netherlands 70¢ $15 26h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $19 29h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 32¢ $7 29h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 40¢ $9 29h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 42¢ $10 38h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 38h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $10 39h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 73¢ $16 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $74.23 · official $74.23 (match) · 376 history records