trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Israel strike 12 countries in 2026? | Jun 12 | $9,217 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Santos FC win on 2026-02-12? | Feb 17 | $2 | +$1 | +35% |
| Will CA Paranaense vs. Santos FC end in a draw? | Feb 17 | $3 | +$1 | +43% |
| Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Australian Open? | Feb 10 | $3 | +$1 | +35% |
| Will CF Estrela da Amadora win on 2026-01-31? | Feb 10 | $3 | +$1 | +32% |
| Will Le Havre AC vs. AS Monaco FC end in a draw? | Jan 28 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Spread: SC Freiburg (-2.5) | Jan 28 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Jan 13 | $771 | −$1 | -0% |
| Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Jan 13 | $299 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Leverkusen win the 2025–26 Champions League? | Jan 09 | $300 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | Jan 05 | $319 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin | Dec 28 | $324 | $0 | -0% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | -0.0% | -9.5% | 0% | 0% | -9.5% |
| ≤30d | 1 | -0.0% | -9.5% | 0% | 0% | -9.5% |
| ≤90d | 1 | -0.0% | -9.5% | 0% | 0% | -9.5% |
| all | 12 | -4.7% | -13.7% | 33% | 33% | -9.5% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -13.7% | 33% | -9.5% |
| 10% | -22.0% | 33% | -18.2% |
| 15% | -29.5% | 8% | -26.1% |
| 20% | -36.4% | 0% | -33.3% |