Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:53:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8D 0x8dd6…ecb1 world 26 markets active 1h ago coverage 470d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$15 (-3%) realized −$15 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate52%13W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$1
30 days−$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 74% −$13
other 12% +$3
weather 5% −$1
politics 5% −$4
sports 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 12 -1.2% -10.6% 42% 8% -12.6%
≤90d 12 -1.2% -10.6% 42% 8% -12.6%
all 25 -5.3% -14.4% 52% 8% -12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.4% 8% -12.4%
10% -22.6% 4% -20.8%
15% -30.0% 4% -28.4%
20% -36.9% 0% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 73% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$4 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.27 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

470d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses13 / 12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)25 / 26
History coverage470d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 96¢ $35 $35 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $37 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 08 $37 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $18 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $35 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $18 $0 +1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 05 $78 +$1 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $18 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 01 $51 −$14 -28%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 29 $2 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 28 $53 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $3 $0 +11%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 26 $22 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July? Dec 09 $2 $0 +3%
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 01 $9 $0 +1%
Will Nottingham Forest finish in the top 4 of EPL? May 26 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian presidential election? May 19 $2 $0 +1%
Will San Marino finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10? May 15 $8 $0 +0%
Will the New York Giants win Super Bowl 2026? May 14 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? May 14 $6 +$3 +49%
Wofford vs. Tennessee Mar 23 $8 $0 +5%
Will Trump's approval rating be between 47.0% and 47.4% on March 14? Mar 14 $10 −$4 -36%
Will Trump pardon Derek Chauvin in his first 100 days? Mar 14 $2 −$1 -36%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 48-49°F on March 12? Mar 13 $12 $0 +2%
Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 11 $12 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 55-56°F on March 5? Mar 05 $13 −$1 -8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $15 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $19 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $37 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $37 3h
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $15 10d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $22 10d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $37 10d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $8 11d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $8 11d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $35 11d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $35 11d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $18 12d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 79¢ $18 12d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 22¢ $10 12d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 12d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 32¢ $2 13d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 32¢ $23 13d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 32¢ $22 13d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 32¢ $4 13d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $27 13d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 13d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 30¢ $17 13d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 48¢ $18 13d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 48¢ $18 13d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 38¢ $36 16d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 53¢ $51 19d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL Yes $1 19d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL Yes $1 19d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL Yes $1 19d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL Yes $0 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.67 · official $34.67 (match) · 75 history records