Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T19:31:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8D 0x8dda…3b3f crypto 46 markets active 3h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$11 (+2%) realized +$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -58% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -65% what you keep after slip
Net edge-65%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate13%6W / 40L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day18.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$292
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-61.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 -57.8% -61.8% 13% 13% -62.3%
≤30d 46 -57.8% -61.8% 13% 13% -62.3%
≤90d 46 -57.8% -61.8% 13% 13% -62.3%
all 46 -57.8% -61.8% 13% 13% -62.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -61.8% 13% -62.3%
10% -65.5% 13% -65.9%
15% -68.8% 13% -69.2%
20% -71.9% 13% -72.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 69% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -58% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -58% · $-wt -58% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -68% → late -48% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$10 · ×1.8 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.27 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses6 / 40
Open positions0
Markets (closed)46 / 46
History coverage4d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day18.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 46 Trades
no open positions (38 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 29 $1 −$1 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 29 $19 −$18 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 29 $5 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 29 $22 −$20 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 29 $33 −$30 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 29 $11 −$10 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 29 $13 −$12 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 29 $13 +$61 +463%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 29 $4 −$4 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 29 $9 −$8 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 29 $12 −$2 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 29 $5 +$4 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 29 $8 −$7 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 29 $16 −$15 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 29 $13 −$12 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 29 $10 +$13 +137%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 29 $7 +$8 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 29 $10 −$9 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 29 $13 −$12 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 29 $10 +$13 +133%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 29 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 29 $6 −$5 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 29 $11 −$10 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 28 $70 −$65 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 28 $36 −$16 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 28 $33 −$10 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 28 $33 −$30 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 28 $54 −$20 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 28 $32 −$12 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 28 $12 −$10 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 28 $3 +$9 +285%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 27 $3 −$2 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 25 $4 −$4 -92%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $19 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $22 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $33 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $11 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $13 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $74 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $13 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $9 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $15 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET SELL Up 23¢ $9 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $8 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $15 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $8 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $23 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET SELL Up 78¢ $15 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $7 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $2 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 70 history records